Why Alabama Will Win the National Championship

The greatest month of the year has finally arrived and now we get to enjoy one of the best sporting events of all time: the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The entire 68 team tournament field was released this past Sunday and the first round is set to begin on Thursday.

To prepare for the big dance, let’s dive into the numbers and see why the Alabama Crimson Tide are one of the best teams in the tournament and could very well win the whole thing.

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Alabama enters this year’s tournament as the No. 1 overall one seed and arguably the best team in the country. The Crimson Tide currently sport a record of 29-5, the second best record among power five teams behind Houston, and they rank third in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings.

Alabama doesn’t have an elite offense, ranking 19th in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, but they do a few things well on that end of the floor. They are really good at crashing the offensive glass (33.8% ORB% | 27th in the nation), they get to the free throw line a lot (36.7% FT rate | 50th in the nation) and they are very effective at scoring inside the arc (54.6% 2PT% | 28th in the nation).

The Crimson Tide also have one of the best players in the country in freshman Brandon Miller. Miller is having a dominant freshman season, averaging roughly 20 points, eight rebounds, and two assists per game on 60.6% true shooting.

His impact has been incredible for a freshman, as he ranks third among players in the tournament in box-plus minus with a mark of 11.9. Who’s above him? Oh just Zach Edey and Trayce Jackson Davis, two players in contention for the Naismith Player of the Year award.

He has been historically good for a freshman, as his BPM of 11.9 ranks 8th among all freshman since 2008. According to this metric, his performance has been on par with some NBA stars such as James Harden, Joel Embiid, and Trae Young.

Miller is the primary scoring option for Alabama and he is one of three players on the team to average at least 10 points per game. Despite being a freshman, he will be relied on to lead the Crimson Tide’s offense throughout the tournament.

While Alabama is not quite elite on offense, it is elite on defense, ranking 3rd in the nation in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. The Crimson Tide do not force turnovers, grab defensive rebounds, or limit free throws, but they are prolific at limiting their opponents’ scoring efficiency (41.5% Opp. eFG% | 1st in the nation). They do a fantastic job of limiting their opponents’ two point shooting (41.2% Opp. 2PT%) and three point shooting (28.1% Opp. 3PT% | 3rd in the nation).

Alabama has a few players who look like really good defenders according to advanced defensive metrics. Sophomore center Charles Bediako and freshman power forward Noah Clowney both rank top ten in adjusted defensive rating.

Alabama is one of just three teams in the tournament with multiple players inside the top ten in the metric (the other two are Houston and Tennessee). Other metrics like Bediako’s defense as well as he ranks fourth among tournament players in defensive box plus minus.

Alabama is an excellent team, but they aren’t perfect and I do think they are beatable. However they don’t have much competition in this region. No. 2 Arizona and No. 3 Baylor are both flawed teams who are probably worse than their seeding as they rank 10th and 15th respectively in KenPom’s rankings.

There are other interesting teams in this region like No. 5 San Diego State (14th in KenPom’s rankings) and No. 6 Creighton (No. 13 in KenPom’s rankings), but I don’t think either of these team’s have a legitimate shot of taking down the Crimson Tide.

If Alabama doesn’t represent the South region in the Final Four, I’d be surprised.

If the Crimson Tide make it to the Final Four, they’ll likely face much tougher opponents than they did in their region. Purdue, Tennessee, or Marquette will more than likely come out of the East, and all three of these teams would give Alabama some trouble. I’d still pick Alabama, but I could see them losing to a team like Purdue who is extremely balanced, has a star in Zach Edey, and features one of the ten best offenses in the nation.

I think the most likely scenario is that Alabama faces Houston in the National Championship. If the Cougars don’t make it, I could see Texas, Gonzaga, and UConn taking their place.

If Houston guard Marcus Sasser is healthy, I think the Cougars would put up a great fight against the Crimson Tide, because they rank top five in offensive efficiency and top 15 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom’s rankings. In all honesty, Alabama and Houston match up very well with each other as both teams are defensive juggernauts with really strong offenses led by star level perimeter players.

Alabama may struggle to protect the ball in this matchup, but I think they are the better three point shooting team and they get to the free throw line more often, allowing them to be more efficient offensively. I also think they are playing slightly better heading into the tournament, so I feel most comfortable picking the Crimson Tide to win this year’s national championship.