2026 Analytical NFL Draft Guide

We are less than a month away from the 2026 NFL Draft, which means it's time to release my annual draft guide.

This draft guide is based on a statistical prospect model I started developing about three years ago, which uses consensus rankings, career collegiate production, and athletic testing to predict how good each prospect will be during the first four seasons of their career (their rookie contract).

Included in this draft guide is a big board of 420+ prospects, including all positions from quarterbacks to punters. That’s right. We’ve got special teamers in here! You’ll also find rankings for each individual position and statistical profiles for each player at each position.

One last thing: My model isn’t meant to be taken as gospel. It should be used as a tool whose results are predictive but far from perfect. I have my own disagreements with my model all the time. However, I think it’s good to have a system that uses a wide range of information and a large dataset to evaluate prospects using the same evaluation framework for each player to limit bias.

With all of that being said, here is my analytical 2026 NFL Draft guide.

Big Board

This is my prospect model’s big board, which includes 420+ prospects, including all positions from quarterbacks to punters.

The numbers included in this table reflect the players’ percentile ranking in each category relative to all prospects since the 2017 draft. For example, Jeremiyah Love’s prospect score is 99.4, meaning he is in the top 0.6% of prospects over the last ten years, according to my model. Hopefully, this will help you read the table and understand it.

Player Profiles

Next, we have individual prospect profiles, split up by position. Here, you’ll find my model’s rankings for each position as well as each prospect’s analytical profile. These analytical profiles include categories that are created using career collegiate data.

Quarterbacks

Here are my model’s quarterback rankings and the career statistical profiles for each quarterback, which measure their passing and rushing ability using PFF data.

Running Backs

Here are my model’s running back rankings and the career statistical profiles for each running back, which measure their rushing, receiving, and pass-blocking ability using PFF data.

Wide Receivers

Here are my model’s wide receiver rankings and the career statistical profiles for each receiver, which measure their receiving and run-blocking ability using PFF data.

Tight Ends

Here are my model’s tight end rankings and the career statistical profiles for each tight end, which measure their receiving, pass blocking, and run-blocking ability using PFF data.

Interior Offensive Linemen

Here are my model’s interior offensive lineman rankings and the career statistical profiles for each interior offensive lineman, which measure their pass-blocking and run-blocking ability using PFF data.

Offensive Tackles

Here are my model’s offensive tackle rankings and the career statistical profiles for each offensive tackle, which measure their pass-blocking and run-blocking ability using PFF data.

Interior Defensive Linemen

Here are my model’s interior defensive lineman rankings and the career statistical profiles for each interior defensive lineman, which measure their run-defending, tackling, and pass-rushing ability using PFF data.

Edge Rushers

Here are my model’s edge rusher rankings and the career statistical profiles for each edge rusher, which measure their run-defending, tackling, and pass-rushing ability using PFF data.

Linebackers

Here are my model’s linebacker rankings and the career statistical profiles for each linebacker, which measure their run-defending, tackling, pass-rushing, and coverage ability using PFF data.

Cornerbacks

Here are my model’s cornerback rankings and the career statistical profiles for each cornerback, which measure their run-defending, tackling, and coverage ability using PFF data.

Safeties

Here are my model’s safety rankings and the career statistical profiles for each safety, which measure their run-defending, tackling, and coverage ability using PFF data.

Kickers

Here are my model’s kicker rankings and the career statistical profiles for each kicker, which measure their ability to hit extra points and field goals from different distances.

Punters

Here are my model’s punter rankings and the career statistical profiles for each punter, which measure their punting ability.

Historical Trends

Let’s end this year’s analytical draft guide by analyzing how this year’s class compares to previous classes going back to the 2017 draft.

This year's class is widely considered a very weak class, and this sentiment is probably accurate. My model has 20 players with a first-round grade this year, and this is the fewest of any draft since 2017.

This class does have some incredible talent at specific position groups, though, including wide receiver and edge rusher.

My model has two receivers with a top-five grade (Makai Lemon and Carnell Tate), one other receiver with a top-ten grade (Omar Cooper Jr.), and two more receivers with first-round grades (Denzel Boston and Jordyn Tyson). In total, this draft has 18 wide receivers with an above-average prospect score.

The edge rusher class doesn't have the same level of high-end talent, but it does have a lot of great players, and the depth of this group is insane. Four edge rushers have first-round grades (Arvell Reese, David Bailey, Reuben Bain, and Akheem Mesidor), with Reese being the lone EDGE with a top-five grade and Bailey receiving a top-ten grade. In total, my model has 16 edge rushers with above-average prospect scores.

Another strength of this year's class is the talent at non-premium positions. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is my model's No. 1 player in this draft, and it ranks him as the No. 1 running back and No. 14 prospect going back to 2017.

My model also loves Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, giving him a top-five grade, which is rare for a safety. He ranks top 50 among all prospects since 2017, and he is the No. 2 safety since 2017 behind Malik Hooker.

Unfortunately, this class has some serious weaknesses. For example, the quarterback class is historically bad, as my model doesn't have a single quarterback with a first-round grade. That is almost impossible. Even last year's draft had three quarterbacks with a first-round grade, and that quarterback class sucked!

The offensive tackle class is also mid. Spencer Fano has a top-ten grade, but no other tackle has a first-round grade. My model's next-highest-graded tackle is Blake Miller! The depth of the tackle class is honestly fine, but the lack of high-end talent is glaring.

This year's draft has clear strengths and solid depth, but it also lacks high-level talent compared to previous classes. I'm excited about this draft class due to the strength of the wide receiver and edge rusher groups, as well as the obvious talent of Jeremiyah Love and Caleb Downs. However, I understand why many people are so down on this class.