The Cardinals May Have Drafted a Star…But Did They Make a Mistake?

The Arizona Cardinals drafted Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and this decision has massive ramifications for the future of the franchise.

Over the last few weeks, the draft community has discussed the value of running backs and whether or not drafting a running back with a high first-round pick makes sense.

Now that we know which team Jeremiyah Love is going to, I want to throw my hat in the ring of the running back value conversation and explain why the Cardinals made a mistake taking a running back so high, even one of the most talented running backs in recent memory.

The biggest issue with drafting Jeremiyah Love at No. 3 is that he will be paid a LOT of money. Each pick in the draft has a predetermined contract value, and as the No. 3 pick, Love will make $53,023,666 over the next four years, fully guaranteed. That is $13,255,916.5 per year.

In terms of total guaranteed money, this makes him the highest-paid running back in the league. Even if you look at every running back's AAV, he is the 7th highest paid running back in the league.

In order for this pick to generate positive value for the Cardinals, Jeremiyah Love has to be at least a Pro Bowl caliber player. That gives the team a very small margin of error, which is scary because, according to a study by PFF from 2025, running backs picked on day 1 have a hit rate of 60.6%, which is average for all positions.

Of course, Love is not an ordinary running back prospect. He is a fantastic all-around player whose career production at Notre Dame reflects a guy who is great at every facet of the game, from rushing to pass catching to run blocking. He can do it all, and it's why he's the sixth-highest graded running back in Gridiron Grading's prospect model going back to 2020.

With this in mind, it's reasonable to suggest that Love can become an All-Pro at the next level. I just think the financial aspect of picking a running back this high is unavoidable. The predetermined rookie scale makes this a risky move. If Jeremiyah Love ends up being say the 10th best running back in the league, this would be a -EV draft pick from a financial perspective.

Just imagine if the Cardinals took an edge rusher like Arvell Reese at No. 3. Based on the contract value of the third pick, Reese would've walked into the NFL as the 18th highest paid edge rusher by total guaranteed money and the 31st highest paid edge rusher by AAV. The chance that the Cardinals get surplus value out of the No. 3 pick

is much higher if they take a player at a premium position. This is without even mentioning that Reese ranked higher than Love on the consensus big board.

I am a big fan of Jeremiyah Love's game, and I think he has the talent to elevate a rushing attack to extreme heights in the right situation. I don't want my high view of him to get lost when I criticize this pick, because my criticisms don't stem from me not liking Love. I simply find the financial aspect of this conversation to be incredibly interesting.

Hopefully, this all works out for the Cardinals, but I won't be shocked if we look back a few years from now and think that the Cardinals should've gone in a different direction.