Conference Championship Week College Football Resume Rankings

After a fun and eventful rivalry week, we have finally reached the conference championships. With the 2025 college football regular season coming to a close, this year's playoff picture is becoming more and more clear. After one more week, we will see who the playoff committee elects to put in this year's playoff.

With the conference championship games coming up next weekend, let's take a look at my college football resume rankings model and see where each team stands after the regular season.

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Rankings Reactions

The best matchup of conference championship week will be Ohio State vs. Indiana. These are the two best teams in the nation, and they are the top two teams in my model's rankings. The winner of this game will secure the No. 1 seed in this year's playoff. This game will also give us a clear picture of who the top dawg is among the national championship contenders.

The top of my model's rankings haven't changed much over the last couple of weeks, but Texas A&M's loss to Texas caused a shift as the Aggies dropped from No. 2 to No. 4.

Texas A&M still has one of the best resumes in the nation with wins against Notre Dame (No. 3 in FPI, best win in the country by FPI), Missouri (21st in FPI), LSU (25th in FPI), and Auburn (26th in FPI). The loss against Texas keeps the Aggies out of the SEC championship game, but they are a lock for the playoff.

With Texas A&M dropping a couple of spots, Oregon rose up to No. 3 in my model's rankings after being No. 5 last week. The Ducks have a very good resume, ranking no. 4 in strength of record and FPI. Their raw resume is very underrated by the public, in my opinion, as they have wins against USC (No. 11 in FPI), Penn State (17th in FPI), Iowa (20th in FPI), and Washington (22nd in FPI) while having one loss against arguably the best team in the nation in Indiana (2nd in FPI).

I was a bit low on Oregon earlier this season, but they have put together a solid body of work. The Ducks may be one of the favorites to win the national championship as they have the third-best odds to win it all, according to ESPN, and they rank 5th in EPA/play margin, according to CFB Graphs.

Another huge matchup next weekend is Georgia vs. Alabama in the SEC championship. Georgia is trying to secure a top-four seed and a bye week, while Alabama is trying to secure a playoff spot. The Bulldogs are already a lock to make the playoff, but the Crimson Tide are not as ESPN gives them a 65.9% chance to get in. Alabama actually needs to win this game to feel good about securing a playoff spot since it currently ranks No. 10 in the playoff committee's rankings.

My model is actually much higher on Alabama than the committee. Georgia and Alabama are No. 5 and No. 7, respectively, in my model's rankings. Georgia should be a lock for the playoff, but I also think that Alabama should be in a much more comfortable position. Of course, Alabama has losses to Oklahoma (16th in FPI) and Florida State (33rd in FPI), but the Crimson Tide also has wins vs. Georgia (8th in FPI), Vanderbilt (14th in FPI), Tennessee (18th in FPI), Missouri (21st in FPI), LSU (25th in FPI), and Auburn (26th in FPI).

I'm really interested to see where my model ranks Alabama if it loses to Georgia next weekend.

The rest of the top 12 in my model's rankings is very interesting. The committee loves Texas Tech and has the Red Raiders ranked in the top five. However, my model has them ranked No. 9, largely because they rank No. 10 in strength of record. Texas Tech will have its hands full in the Big 12 championship against BYU, which my model has ranked No. 6. If Texas Tech wins this game, the Red Raiders may have a chance to be a top-four seed and host a playoff game.

Ole Miss is an interesting team to discuss, too, because its head coach, Lane Kiffin, is leaving to be the head coach at LSU, and he will not be coaching the team for the rest of the season. The Rebels are already a lock for the playoff, so they have nothing to worry about there.

However, losing their head coach may cause the committee to be harsher with their final rankings, and it may cause Ole Miss to get a less favorable matchup. The committee set a precedent for doing something like this when they left undefeated Florida State out of the 2023 playoffs due to their starting quarterback suffering a season-ending injury. This is something to keep your eye on.

I also wanted to discuss Oklahoma a little bit because I have seen people claim that the Sooners should not be in the playoff. I agree with the public sentiment that Oklahoma is not a great team, as it ranks No. 16 in FPI and No. 10 in EPA/play margin. Still the Sooners have a very good resume, ranking No. 9 in strength of record with wins against Alabama (6th in FPI), Tennessee (18th in FPI), Michigan (19th in FPI), Missouri (21st in FPI), LSU (25th in FPI), and Auburn (26th in FPI) while having two losses to Ole Miss (12th in FPI) and Texas (13th in FPI). This is obviously a playoff-caliber resume.

Notre Dame is one of the top ten teams that appear to be in a good spot (83.2% chance to get in, according to ESPN), but my model is less bullish on it. The Fighting Irish are an awesome team, ranking No. 3 in FPI and EPA/play margin. They could make a push for the national championship this year, but their raw resume is much weaker than the other top teams.

For example, Notre Dame is 10-2, and its top wins are against USC (11th in FPI), Pittsburgh (38th in FPI), and Arkansas (41st in FPI), while it has losses to Texas A&M (10th in FPI) and Miami (7th in FPI). The Fighting Irish just don't have many high-level wins, and they have two losses. Their resume isn't bad, but there are enough holes to question whether or not they should be in the playoffs. The conference championship games will change things, but my model would currently have Notre Dame outside of the playoff.

Another huge storyline going into conference championship week is the ACC potentially missing the playoff. The conference's tiebreakers led to Duke, which is 7-5, facing off against Virginia for the conference title. This means Miami, SMU, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech are basically eliminated from playoff contention. Virginia has a real shot at getting in (55.3% according to ESPN), but if Duke beats them next weekend, the ACC will be left out of the playoff. This is a very important conference championship game.

Next, I want to highlight the group of five teams that are fighting for a playoff spot, including North Texas, James Madison, and Tulane. All three are top 30 in my model's rankings, with James Madison at No. 19, North Texas at No. 21, and Tulane at No. 29. ESPN gives North Texas the best odds of making the playoffs at 47.1%. There is a slight chance that two of these teams get in, assuming multiple of them win their conference championship. This would require Duke beating Virginia, though. A man can dream, though.

The last team I want to highlight before we wrap this up is Texas. The Longhorns are coming off a huge win over Texas A&M, and now people are wondering whether they will make the playoffs.

Texas has a good resume, but it's not a slam dunk to make the playoffs. The Longhorns rank No. 12 in strength of record and No. 13 in FPI. They are a good team that is playing well recently, but their raw resume is a rollercoaster. The Longhorns have some good wins against Texas A&M (No. 10 in FPI), Vanderbilt (No. 14 in FPI), and Oklahoma (No. 16 in FPI). Also, one of their three losses was against Ohio State (No. 1 in FPI), which is the best team in the nation. Another was against Georgia (No. 8 in FPI), which is playing for the SEC championship.

The one major issue? The Longhorns lost to Florida (No. 36 in FPI). To make the playoff with three losses, your advanced metrics need to be excellent, you need to have one of the best wins in the nation, and/or you need to avoid having a bad loss. Texas is simply a good team that is not good enough to overcome the loss to Florida and be rewarded with a chance to compete for a national championship.

That's it for this week's discussion of the rankings. Next week will be a lot of fun as the playoff picture gets cleared up and we see which teams will make the final 12 competing for a national championship.