Devin Hester's Hall of Fame Case and the Value of Returners

Photo by NBC Sports

The 2022 NFL Hall of Fame inductees were announced this week, and a few players failed to make it during their first year on the ballot, including Andre Johnson, Devin Hester, and DeMarcus Ware. After this announcement, there were many discussions on Twitter regarding Hester’s case to be a Hall of Famer.

Some people were in disbelief that he didn’t get in, while others stood firm in their belief that you can tell the story of football without him. Here’s a breakdown of his career and a deep dive into whether or not Devin Hester deserves a spot in Canton.

Devin Hester played 11 seasons as a kick/punt returner in the NFL. During his NFL career, he suited up for the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, and the Seattle Seahawks. He is well known for his time with the Chicago Bears, who he spent the first eight years of his career with.

Hester came into the NFL in 2006, and he was incredible right away, recording 1,128 total return yards and five total return touchdowns. He was already the most productive punt returner in the NFL as he led the league in punt return yards and punt return touchdowns. He also led the league in kick return touchdowns. His unreal production as a returner helped him make the pro bowl and get selected as a first-team all-pro as a rookie.

The following season he led the league in punt return touchdowns for the second season in a row, but his productivity as a kick returner was even more impressive. In 2007, he recorded 934 kick return yards and six total return touchdowns. His production was even better than his rookie season, and he was rewarded with another pro bowl and first-team all-pro selection.

The next two seasons were a lot different as Hester began playing more receiver, which took away from his returning duties. Although his production as a returner decreased, he was a decent receiver.

From 2008 to 2009, Hester recorded 108 catches for 1,422 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns. During this stretch, he averaged just over 50 receiving yards per game, which is pretty solid for a guy who previously had just 39 career targets.

2010 was a big year for Hester as he recorded a league-best 564 punt return yards and three punt return touchdowns. He wasn’t super productive as a kick returner, but his production as a punt returner was good enough for him to receive his third pro bowl and first-team all-pro selections.

Just five years into his career, Hester was already a 3-time pro bowler and a 3-time first-team all-pro. I’m not a big fan of accolades, but I can still appreciate this feat's impressiveness.

Let’s fast forward to 2013, when Devin Hester became the most productive kick return in the NFL. From 2013 to 2014, Hester recorded 2,564 kick return yards and led the league in kick return yards in back to back seasons. He played two more seasons in the NFL, but 2014 marked the end of the prime of his career.

Now let’s look at some career totals. I personally believe career totals are useless on their own since they are heavily ependent on career length rather than the quality of someone’s play during their peak. However, they have some value when paired with a player’s production during their prime along with their career accolades.

Without further ado, here are Devin Hester’s career kick/punt return stats along with his ranking in each stat:

Kick Returns: 295 (12th)

Kick Return Yards: 7,333 (12th)

Kick Return Touchdowns: 5 (T-9th)

Punt Returns: 315 (5th)

Punt Return Yards: 3,695 (3rd)

Punt Return Touchdowns: 14 (1st)

Total Kick+Punt Returns: 610 (9th)

Total Kick+Punt Return Yards: 11,028 (8th)

Total Kick+Punt Return Touchdowns: 19 (1st)

All Purpose Yards: 14,455 (46th)

Does Devin Hester deserve to make the NFL Hall of Fame? I think it depends on how much value you think returners provide. In a vacuum, returners are probably the least valuable players in the sport, but they can have a serious impact on the game.

The primary goal of any returner is to gain field position because better field position makes it more likely that a team’s offense is going to score. If a returner consistently racks up big returns while also scoring a few touchdowns, they’re providing a decent amount of value.

The Spax published an article two years ago about the value of punt returners. In the article, Ahmed Cheema used over 35,000 punt returns since 1999 to determine how many points the average return provides. Cheema found that the average return in his data set was 6.04 yards which added .0348 expected points.

Using these results, Cheema calculated who the most valuable punt returner since 1999 was and found that Devin Hester was by far the most valuable punt retuner. During his career, Hester added 98.42 expected points which is over 35 more than anyone other punt returner.

But how does his value compare to other players? Cheema found that in Hester’s best season (2007), he provided just 16.6% of Peyton Manning’s value, making him worth roughly $5.8 million per year.

This data makes me uncertain about putting a returner into the hall of fame. I get that Hester is the best return specialist of all time, but does he really provide enough value to earn that honor? I just don’t know.

However, I want to give Devin Hester the credit he deserves. He is the best punt returner ever and his ability to score touchdowns as a punt and kick returner made him extremely valuable in that role. I think it’s important to note that he showed he could also be a solid receiver if necessary. It’s not like he was one dimensional. He did everything throughout his career and that deserves some praise.

Devin Hester may never make the Hall of Fame, but I think it’s unquestionable that he is one of the greatest returners of al time and if any returner deserves to get in, it’s him.