Why Super Bowl LX Has a Chance to be Special

This year’s Super Bowl has a chance to be absolutely special.

This NFL season was unpredictable and shook out in a way nobody expected. Teams we expected to be great were not, and teams no one expected to be contenders ended up being some of the best teams in the league. When the dust settled, two of the league’s most complete teams were the last ones standing: the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.

These teams didn’t get here due to luck or a perfectly timed hot streak. They are truly two of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball, and over the past few weeks, both teams have looked like they’re peaking at exactly the right time.

Today, we’re breaking down this incredible matchup, including five things to look for during the big game on Sunday.

1. The Seahawks’ Unique Run Defense

Let’s start with the Seattle Seahawks.

This team has been phenomenal all season long, and I think they have taken it up a notch over the last few weeks. No team scares me more right now than the Seahawks.

The Seahawks’ defense is what terrifies me the most. They have been dominant on this side of the ball, ranking No. 2 in EPA/play allowed while being elite against both the pass and the run.

Their run defense is nasty, and the Seahawks have both unique personnel on the defensive line and a unique strategy for stopping run plays. What makes the Seahawks unique in defending the run is that their defense is light. They don’t have much size in the front seven, and on top of that, they don’t stack the box very often.

The Seahawks’ defensive line is undersized, as their two edge rushers, DeMarcus Lawrence and Derrick Hall, are below 260 lbs. Some teams might compensate for this by stacking the box, but the Seahawks don’t do this, running lots of nickel and dime defense while keeping the box neutral or light. The Seahawks only stack the box 13.2% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league.

They don’t stack extra defenders in the box because they don’t have to. They allow just 4.1 yards per carry with neutral or light boxes (seven or fewer defenders in the box), and this should give them confidence that they can shut down a Patriots run game that has been one of the least efficient in the entire league by EPA/rush.

The fact that the Seahawks can shut down run plays without putting extra defenders close to the line of scrimmage is huge because it allows the Seahawks to structure their defense in a way that maximizes their coverage. This means putting extra defensive backs in the secondary to cover more pass catchers or limit how much space is on the field.

If the Patriots struggle to run the ball in this game and the Seahawks are able to live in nickel and dime, it might get a bit rough for the Pats’ offense.

2. Will Drake Maye Rise to the Occasion?

Speaking of the Patriots, let’s talk about their offense a little bit.

I’ll be honest: I wasn't confident in the Patriots heading into the playoffs.

They had one of the best point differentials in the league during the regular season, but their strength of schedule was horrible, and many power-ranking systems indicated they might get upset in the playoffs. Obviously, I do not know ball.

The Patriots have one of the best offensive units in the NFL, led by quarterback Drake Maye, who is competing for the MVP award despite being in just his second season. We’ve seen the Patriots struggle offensively this postseason, so Maye needs to play at a high level for the Patriots to get past the Seahawks.

I’m looking for Maye to do two things in this game: push the ball down the field and make plays with his legs.

Maye is one of the best deep ball throwers in the league. This year, he had the 4th highest average depth of target in the league at 9.6 yards, and he had a PFF grade of 98.1 on throws 20+ yards down the field. His deep ball numbers were extraordinary. He threw deep a lot, and he was quite efficient when he did. The Patriots will likely need some chunk plays to keep up with the Seahawks’ offense, so this may come into play.

On top of this, Drake Maye is very mobile, which adds an underrated element to the Patriots' offense. In tight spots when plays break down, the young gunslinger can step outside the pocket and create something out of nothing. That is huge when you’re going up against a defensive juggernaut.

You may not be aware of Drake Maye’s mobility, but this year, he led the league in total scrambles at 62, and he is one of just five quarterbacks with at least 80 carries and 25 rushing yards per game. Sometimes I think Maye’s athleticism gets overlooked because of the way he looks, but he’s got wheels, and he may need to put them to use in the Super Bowl.

I’m still waiting for Drake Maye to have a big game this postseason, and now the Patriots need their star to show up more than ever. This is a huge moment, and Maye has to come through.

3. Look Out for The Cover 3

Now let’s talk about something both of these teams share.

The Seahawks and Patriots both have very strong pass defenses, with the Patriots ranking 4th in EPA/dropback and the Seahawks ranking 5th. They succeed at shutting down passing attacks in different ways, but one similarity between these teams is their reliance on cover 3.

Cover 3 is a type of zone coverage in which there is a single high safety and two boundary corners, each covering a third of the field. This coverage leaves holes in the seams between the safety and the outside corners, where offenses can hit seam routes for big gains.

We will likely see plenty of Cover 3 in the Super Bowl, which is perfect for both the Seahawks and the Patriots because their quarterbacks excel against that coverage.

This year, Sam Darnold averaged 0.57 fantasy points per dropback vs. cover 3, and Drake Maye averaged 0.47 fantasy points per dropback. The two ranked No. 2 and No. 7, respectively, in this metric.

Although cover 3 closes the middle of the field, unlike cover 2, it still leaves room for offenses to generate explosive plays. The Seahawks and Patriots are so good on defense that I’m not expecting many big plays in this game, but we have seen what these teams can do against cover 3. Maybe we’ll see some bombs!

4. Can the Patriots Slow Down Jaxon Smith-Njigba?

Let’s transition to the Seahawks' offense, which is extremely good and difficult to defend schematically.

Offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak has the Seahawks' passing game humming right now, and the drivers behind their success are Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. These guys have a special connection, and they have made the Seahawks’ passing offense special by making it versatile.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba makes the Seahawks hard to contain by dominating both man and zone coverage. JSN is in the midst of a dominant season, and he completely annihilates any type of coverage you throw at him. This season, he’s been insanely efficient against man and zone coverage, averaging 4.16 yards per route run vs. man as well as 3.86 yards per route run vs. zone. This level of dominance vs. man and zone coverage is special.

Having a receiver like JSN makes the Seahawks very hard to defend because he is going to generate a high volume of targets, and there’s no one defensive scheme you can throw at him to limit his effectiveness. He is simply too good. If the Patriots can’t find a way to slow him down, at least a little bit, it’s going to be a long night for them.

5. Sam Darnold Has a Big Weakness

I feel like I’ve spoken positively about the Seahawks a lot, so let’s talk about one issue that worries me a little bit about them: Sam Darnold’s ability to perform when the situation is not ideal.​​

Darnold has been very productive the last two seasons, and I don’t want to take away from that. I’d hate to be the guy who calls every quarterback that doesn’t throw 50-yard bombs on the run a system quarterback. However, Darnold has some traits that lead me to believe he is thriving within Clint Kubiak’s offense, but that he is not the driver of its success.

I believe this because Sam Darnold’s production this season falls off a cliff when he faces pressure and isn’t running play-action.

When the pocket is clean, or he’s operating in play action, he’s fantastic. This season, he has a PFF grade of 91.9 when the pocket is clean and a PFF grade of 91.1 on play action. Vs. pressure, his PFF grade falls to 51.1, and on plays where there’s not play action, his PFF grade falls to 69.8.

That’s a big drop off, and this is something that New England needs to try to exploit. If they can generate pressure and limit the Seahawks’ run game so they can’t use play action, it could make the Seattle passing game less effective.

Who’s Going to Win the Super Bowl?

It feels like everyone believes it’s a foregone conclusion that the Seattle Seahawks are going to beat the New England Patriots next Sunday, and I understand where this is coming from.

The Seahawks are an amazing team across the board, and they are on fire lately. I think they also match up really well with the Patriots due to their run defense, how they maximize their coverage personnel, and the versatility in how they use Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Still, the Patriots cannot be overlooked. This team is very good defensively as well, and they have one of the best passing attacks in the NFL led by one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league, who can take the top off the defense at any moment.

I do think the Seahawks will come out on top, but this is a better matchup than people are giving it credit for. Perhaps I’m just coping because I’m a big Drake Maye fan, but I think I’ve been sleeping on the Patriots for too long, and I need to wake up.

Regardless, I’m excited for this match-up, and I think it could be an exciting chess match that football junkies can’t get enough of.