Introduction to Per 35 Pass Attempts Statistics

Analytics or statistics, whatever you prefer to call them, have undeniably become a huge part of sports and how fans and experts analyze what happens on the field/court. For example, there is a plethora of amazing statistics within basketball and baseball that makes them two of the easiest sports to analyze on paper. Football is on the opposite end of the spectrum and I want to see how we can analyze the sport in a more intelligent way using simple statistics.

Today I'll be introducing a new way to analyze the passing ability of quarterbacks using per 35 pass attempts statistics. This is the first part of this series in which I'll introduce different statistics I've found in hopes of improving my reader's and my own knowledge about the game of football.

First off, I don't want to give myself credit for this by saying I created this statistic because honestly, I didn't. Although I may be the first person to analyze quarterbacks in this way, this is far from a new concept. In fact, this concept has roots in a completely different sport: basketball.

In basketball, there is a group of statistics called "per 100 possessions" that measure the efficiency of players on a per possession basis. These stats are great because they put every player on the same playing field. No one is at an advantage due to the number of minutes they play or their team's tempo because this only takes into account how productive and efficient players are each possession.

This concept is easily translatable to football and it solves the issues that total and per game stats have.

Total stats are useless in all sports, but their uselessness is magnified when discussing quarterbacks. The issue with total stats in relation to quarterbacks is they don't take into account the kind of offense each quarterback plays in. Quarterbacks who play in a run heavy offense won't have as impressive numbers as one who plays in a vertical offense that likes to throw the ball deep down the field.

They also don't consider the degree of difficulty of a quarterbacks' pass attempts. A quarterback who throws a lock of check downs or screens can rack up a lot of yards with ease, but those numbers aren't very impressive because it doesn't require complex reads or above average arm talent to obtain them. Total stats completely ignore context and that is a major issue.

Per game statistics are a little bit better because they show how productive quarterbacks are on a per game basis, but they still ignore context in the same way that total stats do.

Per 35 pass attempts statistics solve these issues and they do a good job of showing who the best and most efficient passers are within a single season. By no means are they perfect, but I do believe they are more useful than total and per game stats.

Without further ado, here are the per 35 pass attempts stats for all quarterbacks who attempted at least 14 passes per game in the NFL this season.

2021 Per 35 Pass Attempt Stats

2021 NFL Per 35 Attempt stats.xlsx

Download XLSX • 39KB

Included in the excel file are nine statistical categories including completions, completion percentage, passing yards, adjusted passing yards, net yards gained, adjusted net yards gained, touchdowns, interceptions, and quarterback/passer rating. If you don't want to open the file or aren't able to, here are the top five quarterbacks in each stat.

Completions Per 35 Pass Attempts

1. Aaron Rodgers (24.75)

2. Drew Brees (24.68)

3. Deshaun Watson (24.58)

4. Josh Allen (24.23)

5. Teddy Bridgewater (24.19)

Completion Percentage Per 35 Pass Attempts

1. Aaron Rodgers (70.7%)

2. Drew Brees (70.5%)

3. Deshaun Watson (70.2%)

4. Josh Allen (69.2%)

5. Teddy Bridgewater (69.1%)

Without context, completion percentage doesn't necessarily correlate to great quarterback play, but when you consider the degree of difficulty of the throws being attempted, you can determine who the truly great passers are. Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, and Josh Allen are talented play creators who can make difficult throws on the run. The fact that they are top five in completion percentage is extremely impressive.

Passing Yards Per 35 Pass Attempts

1. Deshaun Watson (311.5)

2. Kirk Cousins (290.5)

3. Aaron Rodgers (287)

4. Patrick Mahomes (283.5)

5. Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill (276.5)

Adjusted Passing Yards Per 35 Pass Attempts

1. Aaron Rodgers (336)

2. Deshaun Watson (332.5)

3. Patrick Mahomes (311.5)

4. Ryan Tannehill (304.5)

5. Josh Allen (297.5)

Adjusted passing yards adjusts for touchdowns and interceptions. I like this stat better than passing yards because quarterbacks who throw for more yards and touchdowns while limiting their interceptions will rank higher than those who don't.

Net Yards Gained Per 35 Pass Attempts

1. Deshaun Watson (267.4)

2. Aaron Rodgers (263.9)

3. Patrick Mahomes (263.55)

4. Josh Allen (256.55)

5. Derek Carr (254.5)

This stat takes into consideration yards gained per attempt and yards lost due to sacks. This stat is ok, but quarterbacks with a better offensive line can be unfairly ranked ahead of those who don't. That's a big reason why Derek Carr is in the top five.

Adjusted Net Yards Gained Per 35 Pass Attempts

1. Aaron Rodgers (311.15)

2. Patrick Mahomes (291.55)

3. Deshaun Watson (287.7)

4. Ryan Tannehill (276.5)

5. Josh Allen (273.7)

Adjusted Net Yards Gained basically combines adjusted yards per attempt with net yards gained per attempt. It adjusts for touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks, and I believe it is the best statistic out of the four per attempt stats, because it contains the most variables. I also believe it's a pretty good indicator of who the best passers are.

Touchdowns Per 35 Pass Attempts

1. Aaron Rodgers (3.19)

2. Russell Wilson (2.51)

3. Lamar Jackson (2.42)

4. Ryan Tannehill (2.4)

5. Kirk Cousins (2.37)

Interceptions Per 35 Pass Attempts

1. Aaron Rodgers (0.33)

2. Patrick Mahomes (0.36)

3. Joe Burrow (0.433)

4. Deshaun Watson (0.45)

5. Ryan Tannehill (0.51)

Quarterback/Passer Rating

1. Aaron Rodgers (121.5)

2. Deshaun Watson (112.4)

3. Patrick Mahomes (108.2)

4. Josh Allen (107.2)

5. Ryan Tanehill (106.5)

To get a ranking of the thirty five quarterbacks included in this exercise, I averaged out their ranking in the nine individual categories to get one single number. Quarterbacks with a high average ranking are ranked the highest and those with a low average ranking are ranked the lowest. It's quite simple.

Here are the complete rankings of the thirty five quarterbacks included in this exercise based purely on their per 35 attempt stats. Keep in mind, this is a measure of passing ability and doesn't include any rushing statistics whatsoever.

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Deshaun Watson

3. Josh Allen

4. Patrick Mahomes

5. Drew Brees

6. Ryan Tannehill

7. Kirk Cousins

8. Derek Carr

9. Russell Wilson

10. Phillip Rivers

11. Tom Brady

12. Ryan Fitzpatrick

13. Justin Herbert

14. Teddy Bridgewater

15. Matthew Stafford

16. Kyler Murray

17. Baker Mayfield

18. Lamar Jackson

19. Gardner Minshew II

20. Jared Goff

21. Matt Ryan

22. Mitchell Trubisky

23. Ben Roethlisberger

24. Joe Burrow

25. Nick Mullens

26. Cam Newton

27. Andy Dalton

28. Tua Tagovailoa

29. Alex Smith

30. Daniel Jones

31. Nick Foles

32. Drew Lock

33. Dwayne Haskins

34. Sam Darnold

35. Carson Wentz

There are a couple of interesting placements within these rankings. First off, Josh Allen is in the top three. Not just top ten or top five, but the top THREE. If you aren't familiar with Allen's career, he came into the NFL as a raw quarterback prospect who had incredible arm strength but struggled to throw the ball with touch or accuracy. These issues plagued his career early on, but this year he exploded and turned into an elite passer. He completed 69.2% of his passes this season and he is doing a better job of limiting his turnovers. His statistical jump from last season is simply remarkable.

Russell Wilson coming in at number nine is interesting as well. He was in the MVP conversation at one point and now he is barely one of the ten best passers in the NFL. Why did this happen? It's actually quite simple. Russ ranked quite low in the per pass attempt stats (Y/A, AY/A, NY/A, and ANY/A) and he threw a lot of interceptions this season. He did rank seventh in passer rating and second in touchdowns per 35 attempts which helped his ranking a lot, because he honestly wasn't very efficient this season.

You might also be wondering why Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson are so low. Kyler didn't have a very high touchdown rate this year and he ranked pretty low in yards and adjusted yards per 35 pass attempts. Lamar had a low completion percentage and his interception rate was a bit high. This doesn't mean that they are bad quarterbacks or even terrible passers, this just means they weren't extremely efficient in the passing game. For a better look at where they rank among quarterbacks, QBR (total quarterback rating) is a good indicator because it involves EPA (expected points added) on rushing plays, which benefits both players.

Also, Carson Wentz being last is hilarious. Everyone point and laugh!

This isn't a perfect system and I don't think it is responsible to use these stats by themselves. You need to watch film and provide context for these stats to explain how and why they happen. Nevertheless, I believe that this is a solid list and these statistics do a good job of indicating who the best and most efficient passers in the NFL are.