Is Ty Simpson Worth a First-Round Pick?

Ty Simpson has been the talk of the town recently, and there is speculation that he could be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. But is he really worth that kind of draft capital, or is he the type of player that has a sudden rise late in the draft process before fizzling out quickly in the NFL? Today, we'll break down why there is so much buzz surrounding Ty Simpson and what makes his evaluation so difficult.

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A Tale of Two Halves

Ty Simpson became Alabama’s full-time starting quarterback in 2025 after limited playing time during his first three seasons in Tuscaloosa. It wouldn’t have been too surprising if he struggled early, but that’s not what happened at all. For the first half of the season, he actually looked like a first-round talent.

Through the Crimson Tide’s first eight games, Simpson was electric. He completed 67.8% of his passes for 20 touchdowns and just one interception, posting a ridiculous 162.6 passer rating. He had several ridiculous performances as he posted a PFF grade above 90 in three games during this stretch.

His best performances in the first half of the season came against Wisconsin (82.8% completion percentage, 382 passing yards, 4 TD, 0 INT) and Vanderbilt (74.2% completion percentage, 340 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT). During this stretch, Simpson had three games with 10+ Y/A and zero games dipping below 5.0 Y/A. He was playing like a franchise quarterback.

Then the second half happened.

Simpson's numbers cratered across the board after the first eight games as he completed 60.4% of his passes for eight touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 123.9. He had some horrible outings against Auburn, Georgia, and Indiana, posting a passer rating under 112 in all three games. The difference in his efficiency during this stretch was insane, as he had zero games with 10+ Y/A and two games where he failed to crack 5.0 Y/A.

So, which version of Simpson is the real one? That's the million-dollar question everyone is asking.

The Experience Problem

Here's where things get tricky for Simpson's evaluation: he simply doesn't have much tape.

With only one season as a full-time starter and just 602 career dropbacks, he has a serious lack of experience, and this makes it difficult to be confident in our evaluation, no matter how we feel about him.

We've seen this story before with recent quarterback prospects like Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson. Both were athletic, toolsy quarterbacks with limited starting experience who were drafted in the first round. Unfortunately, neither has come close to living up to their draft position.

No matter how much you like Simpson’s tape, his lack of starting experience is an unavoidable problem. It seems that quarterbacks who don’t start many games in college tend to struggle with the transition to the NFL. This makes sense. The speed of the game in the NFL is entirely different than the speed of the game in college, and the athletes on the field are at a whole different level.

The fact that Simpson didn’t play much in college and only played well in about half of his starts is extremely concerning.

What He Does Well

Let's give credit where it's due, though. Simpson has some awesome traits, and his tape has serious bright spots.

First off, he excels as a quick-game operator and intermediate passer.

On quick dropbacks, he doesn't put the ball in harm's way. His accuracy is consistent, and he processes the short areas of the field effectively. This may not seem important, but a lot of quarterback prospects struggle to read the defense quickly and operate within the pocket, but that’s not a problem for Simpson.

Blue: Drobacks < 2.5 seconds | Red: Dropbacks > 2.5 seconds

Where he really shines, though, is on intermediate throws. He's very accurate in that 10-20 yard range, and he generates big-time throws at an elite rate on those passes. He was also very willing to throw over the middle of the field in 2025 - something that often makes college quarterbacks uncomfortable - and he did it at a high level. Below, you can see how well he produced on intermediate passes this season.

Simpson's accuracy is generally fantastic; he ranks in the 88th percentile among all quarterback prospects since 2017 in my accuracy metric, which measures how accurate quarterbacks are when pushing the ball downfield and under pressure. Good accuracy and strong intermediate passing are a great combo for a quarterback prospect.

Simpson also does a nice job staying in the pocket while scrambling when necessary. He's not the type to bail at the first sign of pressure, which evaluators appreciate. This is an underrated trait. A lot of quarterback prospects leave the pocket too quickly and too often. It’s nice to be able to extend plays, but this can be an issue when quarterbacks do it unnecessarily.

I have a pocket management metric that measures how well quarterbacks balance their time-to-throw (by not throwing quickly too much and not holding onto the ball too long) and their scramble rate (by not scrambling unnecessarily and not staying in the pocket too long). Simpson ranks in the 83rd percentile in this stat.

All in all, Ty Simpson has an intriguing profile with some high-end traits as a pocket passer. It's easy to see why many people like him so much.

The Concerns

Earlier, I mentioned Ty Simpson’s lack of experience, but this is far from his only issue as a prospect.

Arguably, his biggest flaw is his lack of aggression as a passer. His deep ball passing is a huge problem. He doesn't throw deep very often, and when he does, the results have been underwhelming. He threw deep on just 13.3% of his career pass attempts (18th percentile), and his adjusted completion percentage on these throws was just 45.7% (57th percentile). These are average numbers at best for quarterback prospects.

In an NFL that values vertical passing, this is concerning. The best defenses in the world will take away the intermediate parts of the field and force Simpson to push the ball deep.

Building on this, I believe Simpson's arm strength has become overrated, largely due to his mechanics. He has the ability to generate high velocity when throwing the ball down the field. This has caused many people to praise his arm strength and claim he has a better arm than Fernando Mendoza.

I understand why people feel this way, but I'd like to point out that Simpson can't put much zip on the ball without compromising his mechanics. Too often, he doesn't open up his hips enough, which forces his upper body to do too much work, and this is a recipe for inaccuracy at the next level.

I've also seen some throws where he has to get off his heels just to get the ball downfield. It's plays like this, where it takes so much effort for Simpson to throw with velocity, that lead me to believe his arm strength isn't as good as many people think.

Simpson also takes sacks at a high rate. While he manages the pocket well in terms of not holding the ball too long or scrambling too much, he fails to avoid sacks when there's pressure in his face, as he sports a career pressure-to-sack rate of 19.6% (34th percentile). Lacking aggression and taking too many sacks can absolutely derail a quarterback's NFL career.

The last part of Simpson's game I want to touch on is his athleticism. He's a decent athlete with legitimate mobility, but he doesn't weaponize his legs nearly enough. His rushing production was minimal in college, as he averaged just 14.7 rushing yards per game (24th percentile).

Quarterbacks don't need to be amazing ball carriers, but most of the top starting quarterbacks in the world are quite productive running the ball. It's difficult for quarterbacks to be successful without providing much rushing value, unless the rest of the roster is good enough to overcome that (i.e., the Rams and the Lions).

What's the Verdict?

Ty Simpson is an interesting quarterback with a few valuable traits and many bright red flags. His tape from the first half of this season was impressive, showing a quarterback with the accuracy, processing, and poise to succeed at the next level. The second-half tape did the opposite, raising concerns about his consistency and his ability to adjust when defenses have him figured out.

With his limited experience, underwhelming deep passing, poor sack avoidance, and below-average rushing impact, you've got a prospect that carries significant risk. He could develop into a quality NFL starter. He could also flame out like other inexperienced quarterbacks that came before him.

Is he worth first-round draft capital? As much as I am intrigued by his flashes, I must say no. It would be too much of a gamble to take a quarterback with this profile in the first round.