Luka Dončić's Offensive Brilliance Comes With a Price

Luka Dončić is having his best offensive season in two years, but his offensive brilliance comes with a serious price.

Luka is the engine behind a Lakers offense that ranks top ten in offensive rating for the first time since 2012, dismantling defenses in pick-and-rolls and isolation as one of the league’s best scorers and passers. His offensive output this year has been very impressive.

But on the other end, Luka is struggling defensively, showcasing a lack of effort and poor off-ball instincts. This is hurting the Lakers, who rank just outside the top 20 in defensive rating.

Today, we’re breaking down how Luka effortlessly dismantles defenses as an on-ball creator and what his defensive struggles mean for the Lakers' chances to make a deep playoff run.

Interior Scoring

Luka Dončić has been unbelievable as a scorer this year, averaging a league-best 33.3 points per game on 60% true shooting. A big reason he is producing like the league's best scorer is that he has taken a huge step forward as an interior scorer.

For years now, Luka has been a very Moneyball-pilled scorer, which is my way of saying he takes a lot of shots near the basket and from three while limiting how many long twos he attempts. He still doesn't take many long twos, but he has become a dominant mid-range scorer.

On this play, Luka is operating in isolation, and he gets inside the arc off the dribble. Because the center rotates, he doesn't get to the rim, but he's able to hit a fadeaway off one leg.

Here's another example of Luka hitting a mid-range fadeaway off one leg. He posts up his defender in the mid-range, then uses his size and strength to create some separation and hit the jumper.

Luka Dončić is an amazing, tough shot maker, and this play is a great

example of that. Here, Austin Reeves gets double-teamed, so he swings the ball to Luka, who immediately takes his defender off the dribble to get to the paint.

I think Luka was attempting to draw a foul, but he doesn't get the call. That doesn't matter, though, because he hits a tough shot off the glass.

Luka's mid-range shooting has been amazing this season, but he's also been a phenomenal rim finisher.

On this play, DeAndre Ayton sets a screen for Luka, and the Mavericks switch, leaving Daniel Gafford on Luka. Luka immediately splits the defense, gets two feet in the paint, and scores at the basket with ease.

Right here, the Mavericks are playing very high on defense, and Jaxson Hayes sets a screen for Luka. Coming off the screen, Luka splits the defense just like the last play, and he finishes at the basket even with a defender rotating to guard the paint.

Here's another play where the defense is playing really high, so the Lakers set a screen for Luka to punish the defense. Off the screen, Luka slows down to pin his defender behind him, and he has a few different teammates who are open.

Since he is surrounded by a handful of defenders, he doesn't pass the ball. Instead, DeAndre Ayton subtly stands in front of the big man in the paint, allowing Luka to hit a floater.

Luka's interior scoring numbers this year are absolutely ridiculous. He's getting to the free-throw line a league-best 12 times per game, and he's shooting 79.8% at the rim and 50% from mid-range. Those are hyper-elite marks for a guard. I will say, I wish rim attempts were a bigger part of his shot diet, but Luka has been dominant scoring inside the arc.

On-Ball Creation

Luka Dončić's biggest superpower is his prowess as a playmaker. Few players in the NBA are as dangerous with the ball in their hands as Dončić is, and he's dominating as a heliocentric creator once again.

On this play, the Timberwolves are playing very high on defense, and the Lakers counter by running two screens set by DeAndre Ayton. After the second screen, the big man rolls to the basket, and this puts the Timberwolves in a tough position.

Luka's defender is behind him, and Rudy Gobert is playing drop coverage to keep Luka from throwing a lob and try to force him to take a mid-range pull-up. Unfortunately for the Wolves, Anthony Edwards moves from the corner toward the paint to help prevent a lob pass, which gives Luka a chance to swing the ball to the corner.

Luka sees this defensive rotation, and he smells blood. He makes an incredible pass to Gabe Vincent in the corner, and Vincent drains the three.

Here, LeBron throws a pass to Luka Dončić in the mid-range, and Luka posts up his defender. He notices the big man floating to provide some help defense if needed. This leaves DeAndre Ayton open for a lob, and they connect for an alley oop.

This play right here is absolutely ridiculous, and it's one of the best passes you'll see.

Jaxson Hayes sets a screen for Luka, and the 76ers blitz him with two defenders. Hayes is open on the roll, but a defender rotates to the paint to prevent an easy layup. Normal human beings can't make a pass to the corner, but Luka is anything but normal.

He jumps off two feet and makes a beautiful pass, which leads to a three-pointer.

Luka Dončić has been insanely productive as a pick-and-roll ball handler this year, averaging 1.03 points per play on a league-best 12 possessions per game.

The reason he is so good at running this play type is that he is an all-time great passer. This season, he is averaging 8.8 assists per game with an assist rate of 41.4%, and according to BBall Index, he leads the league in their playmaking talent metric while also playing on-ball at one of the highest rates in the league.

Defensive Woes

Luka Dončić is absurdly good on offense, but his immense on-ball responsibilities lead to one significant drawback: He does not provide much value on defense. This has been his worst defensive season in a long time, and his lack of effort and questionable off-ball instincts have been hard to watch.

On this play, the Pistons run a pick-and-roll, and Luka Dončić is defending off-ball in the corner. Once Jaden Ivey gets into the paint. Luka plays off his man to provide some help defense. Unfortunately, he is providing too much help while being one pass away, and Ivey hits Ron Holland in the corner for a three.

This play starts off with a missed three from Luka, and Bryce McGowens grabs the rebound. On the other end of the floor, the Pelicans set a screen for McGowens, and Luka is trying to be aggressive to fight through the screen. However, McGowens doesn't use the screen, and Luka can't slide his feet to prevent McGowens from getting to the paint and scoring at the basket.

On this play, James Harden is operating in isolation, and early on in the action, Luka Dončić and Austin Reeves are trying to figure out where they need to be on defense.

Once James Harden beats his man off the dribble. Luka steps up and tries to take a charge. James Harden is too shifty to fall for that, and he eurosteps around Luka for an easy basket.

Luka's struggles on defense may not be obvious if you just look at the box score because his 2.1% steal rate and 22.3% defensive rebound rate are good for a guard. Unfortunately, his advanced metrics on this end of the floor reveal some major red flags.

For example, according to basketball reference, the Lakers' defense improves by 2 points per 100 possessions when he is off the floor. On top of this, he ranks near the bottom of the league in BBall Index's perimeter isolation defense metric and their help defense talent metric. His defensive impact has been underwhelming, and this is largely because he can't defend in isolation, and he's not very good as a help defender.

How Does Luka's Defense Affect the Lakers' Ceiling?

Luka Dončić’s offensive brilliance is undeniable. He’s one of the most devastating on-ball creators in the league, capable of warping defenses through his scoring, passing, and sheer control of the game. That’s why the Lakers’ offense reaches a level it simply can’t touch without him.

However, basketball is played on both ends of the floor, and right now, Luka’s defensive shortcomings are real. His lack of effort, poor off-ball awareness, and inability to consistently hold up in isolation put pressure on the rest of the roster, and that pressure will compound in the playoffs.

A half-season of poor defense doesn’t mean Luka isn’t an elite player anymore. It just means that his value is more complicated than the box score suggests at the moment. When he’s engaged defensively, his offense makes him an MVP-caliber force. When he’s not, the margin for error shrinks dramatically.

And that’s the question facing the Lakers moving forward: can Luka’s historic offense outweigh the defensive weaknesses that teams will relentlessly target when the games matter most? I guess we'll have to wait and see.