Why the Atlanta Hawks are Struggling and How They Can Fix Their Issues

The Atlanta Hawks have undoubtedly been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this year, as they sit at .500 and are slotted as the ninth seed in the eastern conference.

Their situation could be much, much worse as there are other teams who entered the season with high expectations but have not come close to meeting them. At least they’re not the Chicago Bulls and the Toronto Raptors, right? Sorry, that was mean.

Still, the Hawks have been playing like a fringe playoff team when many people expected them to be a top-six team in the eastern conference with a chance to host a playoff series if everything went right.

Their situation got a lot more complicated last week when Sam Amick of the Athletic published an article outlining some troubles that had been brewing within the Hawks’ front office over the past few years - including Nick Ressler, son of their owner Tony Ressler, gaining more influence as a decision maker.

All is not lost, though. The team has a plethora of talented players, and there is a foundation here that can be built into a championship contender if, and only if, the team makes smart and calculated decisions moving forward.

Here is exactly why the Hawks have struggled this season and what they can do to improve the roster moving forward.

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Looking at some advanced numbers, it’s pretty obvious that the Hawks are a below-average team, especially on the offensive end of the floor. Through around 40 games, the team ranks 21st in offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) and 12th in defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). This gives them the 23rd-ranked net rating (point differential per 100 possessions) in the NBA. If you adjust their net rating for their strength of schedule, they have the 23rd-ranked adjusted net rating.

Right now, we’re looking at a team with a slightly above-average defense and a very below-average offense.

There are a few reasons why the Hawks have been so bad offensively despite having two of the best guards in the NBA in Trae Young and Dejounte Murray: a poorly designed shot diet and a lack of offensive rebounding.

When I say shot diet, I’m talking about where the Hawks’ field goal attempts are coming from. Some teams, like the Boston Celtics, have a shot diet that consists of a lot of three-pointers, while other teams, like the New Orleans Pelicans, have a shot diet that consists of a lot of dunks and layups. Other teams, like the Brooklyn Nets, make their living from the mid-range, though this is rare due to the analytical nature of the game, where threes, dunks, and layups are valued way more than mid-range jumpers.

The Atlanta Hawks have a very odd-shot diet, which you can see below.

A vast majority of the team’s shot attempts come from the mid-range, they don’t generate many rim attempts, and they rarely shoot threes. This is pretty strange because there are basically zero teams who have a shot diet quite like the Hawks. The Brooklyn Nets have a similar offensive strategy, but even they rank inside the top 20 in three-point attempt rate (the percentage of their field goal attempts that are threes).

This isn’t ideal because mid-range jumpers are way less efficient than dunks, layups, and threes. To have an efficient offense with this kind of shot diet, the Hawks would have to be remarkably efficient from mid-range. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case.

The Hawks are currently shooting around 45% from mid-range. That’s pretty good, ranking top ten in the league, but it’s not good enough, considering a vast majority of the Hawks’ shot attempts come from this area of the floor.

A big issue this causes is a lack of free-throw attempts. Since the Hawks take so few shots at the rim, they rank just 24th in free throw rate (free throws per field goal attempt), making it even more difficult to be efficient.

This wonky offensive game plan is the main reason why the Hawks have been so bad offensively despite having a lot of offensively gifted players. However, it’s not the only problem.

Another reason the Hawks have struggled offensively is a lack of offensive rebounding. Offensive rebounding isn’t flashy, so it doesn’t get a lot of attention. However, it plays a significant role in whether or not a team wins games.

The reason this is such a valuable skill is that offensive rebounds extend possessions and give teams more opportunities to score. They also lead to putbacks, which is an extremely efficient shot.

To be fair, offensive rebounding isn’t as important as shooting or limiting turnovers, but it’s still very important, and there are reasons why statistician Dean Oliver identified it as one of the four most important factors in the game of basketball.

Although the Hawks have a strong offensive rebounder in Clint Capela, the team ranks just 21st in offensive rebound rate (the percentage of available offensive rebounds the team recorded). Combine this with the Hawks’ poor free throw rate and wonky shot selection, and you get one of the worst offenses in the NBA.

The first step the Hawks need to take to fix this issue is getting a new head coach. Although Nate McMillan is a good coach and has done some great things in Atlanta, it’s time for the team to move on from him because his system doesn’t fit well with their roster. It’s hard to say anyone needs to be fired, but this is a business, and the Hawks can’t afford to see their team continue to perform below expectations. Something has to change, and this is a necessary move.

The next step is improving the team’s three-point shooting. If I could decide who would be the Hawks’ next head coach, I would hire somebody who would implement an offense that spreads the floor, shoots a ton of threes, and allows Trae Young and Dejounte Murray to utilize their scoring and passing prowess to create open shots for themselves and their teammates. Think of a Mike D'Antoni offense.

After getting a new head coach and implementing a new offensive system, the Hawks need to make changes to their roster to improve their floor spacing because they don’t have the personnel to execute an offensive system that relies heavily on floor spacing and three-point shooting.

Here are a few trades the Hawks could and should pursue before the trade deadline on February 9th.

1. O.G. in the ATL

Like the Hawks, the Toronto Raptors are having an underwhelming season, and they could decide to blow things up. I’m not sure how willing the Raptors would be to give up O.G. Anunoby, but this trade makes some sense for both sides.

The Hawks would get two wings who can shoot the ball and play defense, although Anunoby and Trent jr. are both having down seasons. Nevertheless, these two players would improve the Hawks’ three-point shooting while also giving them enough on defense to keep the teams’ defensive rating above the league average. Considering Anunoby is a defensive player of the year candidate this season, this trade would likely improve the Hawks’ defense.

For the Raptors, this trade gives them some quality draft capital along with two talented young players. I’m not sure how John Collins would fit on this team, and I doubt the Raptors would be that excited about De’Andre Hunter, but that 2029 first-round pick would be very enticing.

The reason the Hawks would have to give up a first-round pick so far in the future is due to the Stepien rule, which states that a team may not trade first-round picks in consecutive drafts. This means the Hawks can only trade their 2023 and 2029 first-round picks.

I doubt this trade is realistic, but if it is, the Hawks should give it strong consideration.

2. The Phoenix Suns Shooters

This trade is far more realistic than the first one, and I think it could work for both sides.

The Phoenix Suns are currently below .500 and in great danger of missing the playoffs this year. Considering their roster and the fact that they have championship expectations, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they made a move at the trade deadline to get them back in a position where they can be serious contenders.

I love this trade for the Hawks because it gives them three wings who can all shoot threes and play defense. They won’t provide much else, but their addition to the roster will make the Hawks’ three-point shooting exponentially better, and that’s my main concern.

Cameron Johnson is an interesting piece here because he is in the last year of his contract and has dealt with an injury for most of this season. He is a guy the Hawks would love to resign, though I wonder if his injury could allow the Hawks to resign him at a discount. If so, that would be huge.

Jae Crowder is interesting too because he hasn’t played a game this season and is on an expiring contract. Hopefully, he would be interested in playing in Atlanta because his services would be greatly appreciated.

Landry Shamet is an underrated player who has a four-year contract, but it’s pretty cheap, and he has the potential to be effective in a Seth Curry-type role in Atlanta as a role player coming off the bench. He is a very good shooter who has some decent ball-handling capabilities. He’d be an awesome bench piece.

For the Suns, this trade gives them someone in John Collins who could make a nice frontcourt partner playing next to Deandre Ayton. Collins is having a rough season, but there are a lot of off-court issues in Atlanta that are likely causing him to be less effective than he should be.

Since Collins is a decent shooter, a strong rebounder, and a solid defender, I think he would be a great addition to the Suns’ roster, and I think he is a great fit next to Ayton.

This trade also frees up $2 million in cap space for the Suns while also netting them two second-round picks. Since the trade gives the Suns some more cap space, I would be unwilling to give them a first-round pick. In my opinion, this is a fair offer that could work out well for both teams.

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The Atlanta Hawks are in a rough spot right now, but the dark days don’t have to last forever. They can pull themselves out of this hole they’re in. It’ll just take some difficult decisions and a change in their offensive philosophy. It’ll also require some roster changes, which they can execute through trades with the trade deadline quickly approaching. If they play their cards right, the Hawks can become a serious playoff team sooner rather than later.