NFL Draft Philosophy Part 2: The Elite Franchise Quarterback Formula

Welcome to part two of my NFL draft philosophy series where I dive deep into some of the most interesting draft related concepts and ideologies. Today I'm going to focus on the biggest question NFL fans and front offices have been asking for years now: what is the key to finding an elite franchise quarterback through the draft?

The Value of the Quarterback

The first step in building a roster that is capable of competing in the NFL is securing a franchise quarterback. This is the most important step of the team building process because there isn't another position that's as valuable or as impactful as the quarterback. This position is the foundation of every NFL franchise and they drive winning in a way that's unmatched by anyone else on the gridiron.

In the first edition of this series, I discussed how Deshaun Watson is a great example of how value quarterbacks are. The Houston Texans are currently 4-11, but they've been pretty competitive this season and Deshaun Watson is the reason why. Watson has played at an elite level this year, throwing for 30 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions while sporting a QBR of 71.6. The Texans would be in the conversation for the number one overall pick without Watson on their team.

Patrick Mahomes had a similar impact on the Kansas City Chiefs in 2018. That season, the Chiefs ranked 24th in opponents yards per play (5.9) and opponents points per game (26.3). Despite their poor defense, the Chiefs made it to the AFC championship on the back of Mahomes' historic MVP season in which he threw for 50 touchdowns and had a QBR of 80.4. Although he had a more talented roster than Watson, Mahomes still made his team better and they almost made it to the super bowl solely because he played at a historic level.

These two quarterbacks have proven that a franchise quarterback can change the outlook of your franchise.

There's one big issue we need to address before moving forward. The two quarterbacks I just mentioned are among the best in the league and in recent memory only elite quarterbacks have had similar impact on their teams. Guys like Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr are top twenty quarterbacks and teams can win games with them under center, but they can't impact a team in the same way Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson can.

When drafting a quarterback in the first round, you want someone who can be the leader of your franchise and one of the best at his position in the NFL. Drafting a quarterback in the first round who needs to be surrounded by talent on both sides of the ball to be successful isn't ideal. Teams need someone who drives winning on their own and makes the team building process easier. It's a hard pill to swallow, but when you draft a quarterback in the first round, they need to become elite in the NFL.

To give you a better picture of who the elite quarterbacks in the NFL are, I'm going to separate some of the top quarterbacks in the NFL into two tiers: Elite Quarterbacks and Great/Almost Elite Quarterbacks.

Elite Quarterbacks

The best of the best who I'd pay top money for without giving it a second thought

Patrick Mahomes

Russell Wilson

Deshaun Watson

Great/Almost Elite Quarterbacks

Really good quarterbacks who are either getting up there in age or need a few more seasons of great play to be elite. I'd at least consider paying these guys top money

Aaron Rodgers (age and an outlier 2020-21 season put him here)

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Kyler Murray

When a team drafts a quarterback with a first round pick, the most ideal outcome is that their draftee becomes good enough to fit into one of the two categories listed above. If they become Kirk Cousins, rather than Russell Wilson, I don't think that's a complete failure of a pick, but it would be far from the best possible outcome.

Now let's get into what makes a prospect a potential elite franchise quarterback.

The Elite Franchise Quarterback Formula

Predicting the success or failure of quarterback prospects is extremely difficult and probably the hardest thing about the draft. There have been plenty of quarterbacks drafted in the first round that were underwhelming once they reached the NFL. Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell are the most well known cases of this. However, I believe there are six key factors that are necessary for a quarterback prospect to reach elite status in the NFL. Here is my elite franchise quarterback formula.

Accuracy + Ball Placement + Decision Making + Arm Strength + Mobility + Play Creation = An Elite Franchise Quarterback

Accuracy, Ball Placement, and Decision Making

Accuracy, ball placement, and decision making are the most important qualities for a quarterback prospect to have. To be successful in the NFL, quarterbacks must be able to read man and zone coverage schemes and make accurate throws in the correct spots.

Accuracy is pretty easy to understand. Basically, it is the ability to throw the ball to the right spot. If a quarterback consistently misses open windows and throws the ball behind or ahead of their receivers, they aren't an accurate passer. It's rare for top prospects to struggle with accuracy as they're more likely to have poor ball placement and/or decision making. If a prospect struggles to throw the ball with accuracy, they're probably not a first round pick.

Ball placement is a very underrated skill and it can make a quarterback prospect extremely dangerous. Former LSU quarterback Joe Burrow does a great job of taking advantage of defensive backs' leverage and throwing the ball where they can't make a play on it. His ability to make throws into tight coverage without having elite arm strength is a huge reason why I and many other people loved him as a prospect.

Decision making is extremely important as well and it's the most common issue I've seen in top quarterback prospects. For example, Justin Herbert was not a very good decision maker in college and that's the main reason why I didn't think he was worth a first round pick last year. He was extremely reckless with the football and there were times when he'd put his receivers in dangerous situations due to his below average field vision.

If a quarterback can read a variety of coverages and make the right decision consistently, chances are they'll have a chance to make it the NFL. Obviously there are other factors to consider, but decision making is a very important trait for quarterbacks to have.

Arm Strength

There's a misconception about what arm strength really is. Most people think it means that a player can throw the ball a long distance, but there's more to it. It also includes the velocity at which quarterbacks are able to drive the ball down the field. A quarterback with great arm strength can throw the ball thirty yards down the field on a flat path while those with weaker arms would have to loft the ball a bit and the throw wouldn't have much velocity.

Despite popular belief, arm strength honestly isn't that important. Of course it has value, but it isn't a necessity to be a successful quarterback. Drew Brees has been one of the league's best quarterbacks over the last few seasons and his arm strength has declined as he's entered the final stage of his career. Arm strength is great when combined with other traits, but it's useless on it's own and quarterbacks can be just fine without it.

Mobility

In the context of this conversation, mobility includes moving to evade tacklers within the pocket, attacking the defense and picking up yards by running the ball, and extending plays outside of the pocket. Before I continue, I won't discuss mobility as a means of extending plays in this section. This will be discussed in the play creation section of this piece.

I've found that when I study collegiate quarterbacks, the best of the best are all mobile in some capacity. Joe Burrow was an underrated athlete during his 2019-2020 Heisman campaign and Kyler Murray was arguably the best pure runner in his draft class.

These kind of quarterbacks are better than most pure pocket passers because they can make plays work even when they break down. They can navigate the pocket and take off for first downs when their receiving options fail to get open. Being able to stress the defense with the threat of running can turn a quality passer into a dual threat pain-in-the-you-know-what.

Mobility isn't an extremely valuable trait on its own, but it is immensely valuable when combined with precise passing skills.

Play Creation

I hinted at this during the mobility section, because it goes hand in hand with that trait since you have to be somewhat mobile to be a creator outside of the pocket. There isn't a mainstream term for this aspect of the quarterback position, so I'm just rolling with this.

Play creation is a necessity to become an elite quarterback in the NFL. The one thing that all seven elite or near elite quarterbacks mentioned earlier share is the ability to create plays outside of the pocket. Patrick Mahomes might just be the most talented quarterback of all time because he is so good at extending plays and forcing receivers open even when plays crumble. Rewatch any Chiefs game and I guarantee you'll see a play where Mahomes runs out of the pocket and makes a throw across the field like he doesn't even know that he's breaking the rules of the game.

Joe Burrow showcased a very similar playstyle during his final season at LSU. He never, and I mean never, hesitated to make difficult throws into tight windows while on the run. Even if you played perfect coverage, he was going create a throwing lane and rip your heart out. You simply didn't stand a chance.

Mobility makes precise passers a dual threat pain-in-the-you-know-what, but play creation can turn a quarterback into an unstoppable war machine. If I had to choose one trait for my quarterback to have outside of the three necessities (accuracy, ball placement, and decision making), I'd pick play creation without a doubt. This is the one trait that has truly revolutionized the quarterback position in the modern age of football.

Quarterback Archetypes

Let's close this out by discussing quarterback archetypes. Most quarterbacks are one of three archetypes listed below:

Quality Game Managers

(Accuracy + Ball Placement + Decision Making)

Ex: Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater

These quarterbacks are very good passers who can win games by making good decisions and playing under control, but they lack the upside and impact that more mobile quarterbacks have.

Dual Threat Athletes

(Arm Strength + Mobility + Play Creation)

Ex: Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert

These are really good quarterbacks who have phenomenal physical tools, but lack the precision passing skills that sure fire elite quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes have.

Superstar Play Creators

(Accuracy + Ball Placement + Decision Making + Arm Strength + Mobility + Play Creation)

Ex: Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers

These are the best quarterbacks in the NFL who stress defenses with precision passing and elite outside-of-the-pocket creation.

Quarterbacks who have the three precision passing traits (accuracy, ball placement, and decision making) without great physical tools can be solid in the NFL and teams can have limited success with them under center. However, this is an invaluable archetype and these types of quarterbacks need the rest of the roster to be great to be successful.

Jimmy Garoppolo fits under this archetype and the 49ers almost won a super bowl with him last season. The 49ers also had an elite defense and a phenomenal run heavy west coast offense. Jimmy G was fine and he succeeded in that system, but the 49ers won games because of their defense and their run game, not because of their quarterback.

Quarterbacks who combine precision passing skills (accuracy, ball placement, and decision making) with elite physical tools (arm strength and mobility) and play creation are the most valuable archetype in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes is the best example of this archetype and he's been able to have a great amount of success even though his team hasn't been very good defensively over the last couple of years. Teams would be ecstatic if their young quarterback develops into this archetype.

Even quarterbacks who have great physical tools (arm strength and mobility) but lack great precision passing skills (accuracy, ball placement, and decision making) are valuable in the NFL. Lamar Jackson, one of the best mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, has had a crazy developmental pathway and he ended up winning the MVP last season. His underwhelming passing ability has kept him from having playoff success, but he still has tremendous upside and could end up being elite if he continues to improve as a passer.

Conclusion

Finding a franchise quarterback through the draft can be very difficult, but as the game evolves and the most ideal quarterback archetypes become more apparent, I believe this process can become much easier.

With the success of guys like Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Justin Herbert over the last couple of years, It's become clear that quarterbacks who have excellent physical tools and can create plays outside of the pocket should be prioritized at the top of the first round even if they have accuracy or decision making issues. Coaching staffs can work with quarterbacks and improve their accuracy and decision making, but they can't improve their athleticism.

The 2021 NFL Draft will be extremely fun to follow because it features one of the strongest quarterback classes in the last twenty years. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance are all physically gifted dual threat quarterbacks who can be elite franchise quarterbacks one day. I honestly believe that.

I hope you enjoyed reading about my philosophy on drafting quarterback prospects and I can't wait to see how this ages in the future!