Previewing the Top Quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft

With the 2022-2023 college football season just over a month away, I thought it would be a great idea to look at some of the top quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft and break down their statistical profiles. There are a ton of good quarterbacks in college football, but I decided to analyze just the top five quarterbacks on NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board. This includes C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis, Tyler Van Dyke, and Anthony Richardson. Let’s not waste any time and dive right in.

C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

C.J. Stroud sat behind Justin Fields as a freshman, but he had an excellent sophomore season, completing 71.9% of his passes and throwing for 4,435 yards, 44 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He was incredibly efficient as a passer, averaging 11.4 adjusted yards per attempt and sporting a passer rating of 186.6. His passer rating would’ve ranked No. 1 in the 2022 Draft by a mile.

He was elite according to EPA or expected points added metrics as he had a QBR of 91.6, which ranked No. 1 in the country during the 2021-2022 season. What’s really impressive is he was an extremely efficient high-volume passer who did a great job limiting sacks. He had a sack EPA of -6.6, which ranks 1st among the group of quarterbacks I evaluated for this article.

Stroud isn’t a good rusher, though. He averaged -1.67 rushing yards per game and had a rushing EPA of -0.2 in 2021. He is a phenomenal pocket passer, but he doesn’t make a lot of plays with his legs. The NFL is filled with quarterbacks who can extend plays and put stress on opposing defenses outside the pocket, but Stroud doesn’t do that.

Nevertheless, Stroud is a tremendous prospect with an elite statistical profile regarding his passing ability and pocket navigation.

Bryce Young, Alabama

Bryce Young is another elite prospect who had an incredible 2021 season. He completed 66.9% of his passes and threw for 4,872 yards, 47 touchdowns, and seven interceptions on his way to winning the Heisman award.

He wasn’t quite as efficient as C.J. Stroud in 2021 in terms of his passing, but he was still great. He averaged ten adjusted yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 167.5. He also had a passing EPA of 109.4, which was actually higher than Stroud’s.

However, he is a different archetype than Stroud, as he provides some value as a rusher. He recorded zero rushing yards in 2021 because sack yards are a part of rushing productivity in college football, but he had a rushing EPA of 7.6. This mark ranks second among this group of quarterbacks.

Young is a very aggressive quarterback who can make plays outside the pocket. Unfortunately, this gets him in trouble and gets him sacked a lot. In 2021, he had a sack EPA of -21.8. This puts him near Malik Willis and Sam Howell territory in terms of taking sacks.

You’ll overlook the sacks Bryce Young takes when he’s this good of a passer and provides a ton of value as a dual-threat quarterback.

Will Levis, Kentucky

Will Levis had his first season as a full-time starter in 2021, and he played pretty well. He completed 66% of his passes and threw for 2,826 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.

Levis is nowhere near C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young as a passer. In 2021, he averaged 7.7 adjusted yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 148.3. Both marks are quite poor and way below what we expect from a first-round pick. The big reason why his efficiency stats are so low is because of his interceptions. He had an interception rate of 3.68% in 2021, which is exceptionally high for a top prospect, and was worse than Malik Willis, who was known for his decision-making issues in college.

Although he is a pretty poor passer, his rushing ability is very solid. He averaged 28.9 rushing yards per game and had a rushing EPA of 25.9 in 2021. Unfortunately, his rushing ability isn’t where it needs to be to overcome his passing woes. Still, he has another year to develop as a passer and become a first-round caliber quarterback.

Tyler Van Dyke, Miami

Tyler Van Dyke had a very good season as a redshirt freshman in 2021, completing 62.3% of his passes and throwing for 2,931 yards, 25 touchdowns, and six interceptions.

His completion percentage was very low, but he was still pretty efficient as a passer, averaging 9.8 adjusted yards per attempt and having a passer rating of 160.1. He also had a passing EPA of 62.5, which isn’t amazing, but it was better than Desmond Ridder and Matt Corrall.

Tyler Van Dyke also provides some value as a runner, as he had a rushing EPA of 6.1 in 2021. He isn’t special in this department, but he had similar rushing production as Bryce Young. Van Dyke seems very good at choosing when to run with the ball because he generated decent rushing EPA without taking a ton of sacks.

Tyler Van Dyke doesn’t have the passing volume to be a great prospect yet, but if he has a big year in 2022, we could be looking at a pretty good player.

Anthony Richardson, Florida

Anthony Richardson had a weird season in 2021. He split time with Emory Jones and didn’t get much playing time as he attempted just 64 passes all season. He played so few snaps that he wasn’t even eligible for QBR.

This is why his stats are so low. In the seven games he played, He completed 59.4% of his passes and threw for 529 yards, six touchdowns, and five interceptions.

He was pretty bad as a passer as he averaged just 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt and had a passer rating of just 144.1. His decision-making was quite bad in his small sample of pass attempts, as he had an interception rate of 7.81%.

Although he wasn’t great at throwing the ball, he was excellent as a rusher. He averaged 7.29 carries and 57.29 rushing yards per game in 2021. Both marks rank No. 1 among this group of quarterbacks.

Anthony Richardson is getting first-round hype because people are projecting that he’ll have great success in his second season as the Florida Gators’ starting quarterback. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t played enough to be a legitimate prospect. He has showcased impressive mobility that could give him a high floor if he develops properly, but his passing has been underwhelming so far.

Hopefully, he becomes an efficient passer as he gains experience because he is a total projection right now. The rushing is excellent, but I want to see him take that next step and become a high-level passer. If he does that, he could be a first-round pick.