The College Football Playoff Rankings Special

Conference Championship week is officially in the books, meaning we are a few hours away from seeing the college football playoff committee’s final rankings for the 2025 season. With the regular season and conference championship games complete, it’s time to unveil my college football resume model’s final rankings, break down the resumes of the teams that were in consideration for the playoff, and discuss the playoff committee's final rankings

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My Model’s Rankings

Here are my model's rankings of every FBS team's resume. These rankings are created using strength of record and football power index, two stats from ESPN. strength of record measures the quality of each team's record based on the strength of their opponents, and football power index measures how well each team would be expected to perform vs. the average top 25 team.

Below the resume rankings, you'll see what the playoff field would look like based on my model's rankings.

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In-Depth Resume Breakdowns

Now, let’s take a closer look at the resumes of each team being considered for the playoff field this year. There are 14 teams with at least a 0.1% chance to get in, so we have a lot to discuss. We'll go team by team based on where they placed in my model's final rankings.

1. Indiana

Indiana surprised the nation by going 12-0 during the regular season and finishing ranked No. 2 after starting the season unranked. Then the Hoosiers put the icing on the cake by beating Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, securing a conference championship and the No. 1 seed in my model.

It’s wild how good Indiana’s raw resume is. The Hoosiers are 13-0 with the no. 27 SOS, and they have two wins vs. top-five teams in FPI and five total wins vs. top-50 teams. No other team in the nation has two wins vs. top-five teams in FPI

Indiana has the best raw resume and is the best team in the nation, giving them the clear best case to be the No. 1 seed in this year’s playoff. Build the Curt Cignetti statue ASAP!

2. Georgia

Georgia went into the SEC championship this weekend and absolutely dominated Alabama, getting revenge for its regular-season loss to the Crimson Tide. With this victory, Georgia won the SEC and secured the No. 3 seed in the committee's final rankings.

My model loves the Bulldogs' resume, ranking them at No. 2 thanks to their No. 2 SOR. Georgia put together a nice resume this year, with four wins against top 25 teams in FPI as well as eight total wins vs. top 50 teams in FPI. Georgia is outside the top four in FPI, but this team's resume speaks for itself.

3. Oregon

My model was low on Oregon early in the season after the Ducks lost to Indiana, but they have had a strong finish, and now they enter the playoff with the 5th seed in the committee's rankings.

Oregon has one of the better all-around profiles in the nation, ranking No. 4 in SOR and No. 4 in FPI. The Ducks are currently 10-1 with the No. 17 SOS, sporting four wins against top 25 teams by FPI. They don't have a top ten win by FPI like the teams above them, but their one loss is against the No. 1 team by FPI, which doesn't hurt their resume too much.

I actually think the committee is underating Oregon a bit. Oregon is worthy of receiving a first-round bye. I understand that the committee didn't want to punish Ohio State too much for losing in its conference championship game, and they were already very high on Texas Tech, which won the Big 12 championship and picked up a nice win against BYU. However, the Ducks have a better resume than both of those teams.

This is why my model has Oregon inside the top four. Having Oregon at No. 5 is a mistake from the committee, in my opinion.

4. Texas A&M

Texas A&M winds up with the seventh seed in the playoff, and this is my first massive disagreement with the committee.

The Aggies ended the season at 11-1 with the No. 16 SOS. They have one of the best wins in the nation vs. Notre Dame, and they have seven total wins vs. top fifty teams in FPI. Texas A&M does rank at No. 10 in FPI, indicating they are not one of the four best teams in the nation, but its resume is still very good.

Texas A&M being ranked below a team like Ole Miss makes zero sense, considering the Aggies rank higher in SOR and FPI. I think Texas A&M was deserving of being the 5th seed, which would've given it a favorable matchup with a G5 conference champion. This is something they earned by going 11-1 with an elite non-conference win while facing a very tough schedule.

5. Ohio State

The committee elected not to punish Ohio State for losing to Indiana, and they gave the Buckeyes the 2nd seed in this year's playoff. I think this is a defensible decision as long as they are consistent with this decision-making (they weren't).

My model did the opposite of what the committee did, punishing Ohio State by putting it outside the top four. My model ranked the Buckeyes at No. 5 because they fell to No. 5 in SOR after the Big Ten championship.

I will give them credit for finishing the season at No. 2 in FPI, a very impressive accomplishment. I just think they didn't have enough big wins to overcome the resumes of the teams above them, who had the same number of losses while facing tougher schedules.

6. Texas Tech

Here is another team that my model disagrees with the committee on. The committee rewarded Texas Tech after its dominant victory vs. BYU to win the Big 12 championship by giving it the 4th seed in the playoff. The Red Raiders are arguably one of the best teams in the nation, ranking No. 5 in FPI. This means it isn't unreasonable for them to receive a top-five seed in this year's playoff.

Here's why my model gave Texas Tech the 6th seed. Texas Tech finished the season 12-1, but the Red Raiders are No. 53 in SOS. They also have the worst loss of any team in the playoff. They lost to Arizona State (No. 43 in FPI), and no other playoff team has a loss vs. a team outside the top 40 in FPI.

Texas Tech is an amazing team, and they have a very strong collection of quality wins. However, their schedule was weaker compared to other top teams, and their lone loss was a terrible one. I strongly believe Texas Tech should've been outside the top four in the final rankings.

7. Ole Miss

After a wild last few weeks in which their head coach left the team for a conference rival, Ole Miss saw Christmas come early as the Rebels were given the 6th seed in the committee's rankings.

Ole Miss has a pretty strong resume, sporting an 11-1 record vs. the No. 41 SOS with two wins vs. top 25 teams in FPI and seven total wins vs. top 50 teams in FPI. They also had just one loss, which came against Georgia, who is No. 6 in FPI.

The one knock against Ole Miss is that they are No. 12 in FPI, indicating that they are just barely one of the 12 best teams in the nation. This could've caused them to be ranked lower, but my model really likes the Rebels, and their resume is enough to overlook some of their advanced metrics. I think the committee ranked Ole Miss fairly.

My one complaint about Ole Miss's placement is the fact that it is above Texas A&M. Ole Miss ranked lower than Texas A&M in both SOR and FPI, and I just don't see the argument for the Rebels to be ranked higher. Other than that, their ranking was fine.

8. Oklahoma

Oklahoma had kind of a weird season, but the Sooners landed the plane and finished the year with the 8th seed in the playoff.

Oklahoma is the highest-seeded two-loss team, and for good reason. The Sooners went 10-2 vs. the No. 12 SOS, and they had a ton of quality wins. They took down Alabama, and they had a total of five wins vs. top 25 teams in FPI. They had seven wins vs. teams in the top 50 in FPI, and all seven of the teams rank in the top 32 in FPI.

Their two losses came against Ole Miss and Texas, who both rank in the top 15 in FPI. This is a very good raw resume. There are two reasons why the Rebels are ranked this low, including having two losses and being No. 15 in FPI. Other than that, their profile is pretty impressive.

9. Alabama

There was a lot of discussion about whether or not Alabama would make the playoff after losing to Georgia in the SEC championship and finishing the season at 10-3. The committee elected to keep the Crimson Tide in the playoff as they received the 9th seed.

I am in favor of this decision. Alabama has some warts in its profile, like having three losses and no conference championship. However, you have to keep in mind that it ranked No. 6 in SOS. This schedule was insane.

The Crimson Tide handled this schedule well, finishing the season at No. 10 in SOR with an amazing win vs. Georgia in the regular season and five total wins vs. top 25 teams in FPI. In total, they had seven wins vs. top fifty teams in FPI, with all of them being top 32 in this metric.

What hurts Alabama is having a loss to Oklahoma (15th in FPI) and Florida State (33rd in FPI). The L to Florida State is really bad, but thankfully, the Tide made up for it by beating Georgia and ranking No. 8 in FPI.

While I like that the committee kept Alabama in the playoff and I understand their decision not to punish the Tide for losing a conference championship game, I don't like how inconsistent they were with the next team in my model's rankings.

10. BYU

BYU was, unsurprisingly, left out of the playoff. This was expected to happen, but it didn't make the decision any easier to stomach, especially considering how the committee ranked the rest of the field.

When the committee gave Ohio State the 2nd seed and Alabama the 9th seed, I thought that they might not punish BYU for losing to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship. This would simply be consistent with the way they ranked other teams. Unfortunately, the committee was not consistent, putting BYU out of the top 12 and even ranking the Cougars behind Miami and Notre Dame.

I firmly believe that BYU should be in the playoff. I may be the only person who feels this way, but the Cougars' resume speaks for itself. BYU finished the season at 11-2 despite being No. 15 in SOS. The Cougars had an underrated win vs. Utah (No. 9 in FPI), and they finished the season with five wins vs. top 50 teams in FPI.

Two losses to Texas Tech, only two wins against top-25 teams in FPI, and a ranking of No. 16 in FPI hurt BYU. Still, the Cougars ranked No. 9 in SOR. Their raw resume was better than Alabama's, Notre Dame's, and Miami's, yet they will be watching the playoff from the couch.

This sucks! The committee made a huge mistake here, and they have to be more consistent moving forward.

11. James Madison

James Madison took down Troy to win the Sun Belt championship, allowing the Dukes to secure the 12th seed in this year's playoff.

My model was in favor of James Madison making the playoff. It just preferred the Dukes to be ranked ahead of Tulane. The Dukes finished the season at 12-1, ranking No. 18 in FPI and No. 28 in FPI. They have a very solid profile heading into the postseason.

What's weird about James Madison is that the team had the easiest schedule of all time. The Dukes rank No. 123 in SOS, and they played zero teams in the top 50 in FPI. They also had a loss vs. Louisville, who is No. 29 in FPI.

I'm a bit confused why James Madison ranks so high in SOR with a schedule so easy, but I guess being 12-1 is enough. Keep an eye on the Dukes. They actually might be good enough to pull off an upset in the playoff.

12. Tulane

Tulane made the playoff as the 11th seed after beating North Texas in the AAC conference championship. This gave the Green Wave an automatic bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

My model agreed that Tulane should be in the playoff, but it had the Green Wave as the second-highest-seeded G5 team behind James Madison.

Tulane had a solid season as the team went 11-2 and finished No. 19 in SOR, the second-best SOR of all G5 teams. They had a few quality wins, finishing the season with three wins vs. top 50 teams in FPI. They also had just one loss vs. Ole Miss. The one thing that keeps Tulane behind James Madison in my model is a loss to UTSA (No. 68 in FPI). Gross!

Can Tulane compete vs. a P4 team? Maybe, but I doubt it. The Green Wave will face Ole Miss in the opening round of the playoff, and they already lost to the Rebels in the regular season. Since Tulane is No. 54 in FPI, I don't feel confident that they can take down Ole Miss.

Still, I'm happy to see Tulane be one of two G5 teams to make the playoff this year.

First Four Out:

Notre Dame

Notre Dame was left out of the playoff by the committee in a somewhat surprising decision, as the Fighting Irish were the odds-on favorite to get the final at-large bid over BYU and Miami.

I actually loved this decision, and my model also had Notre Dame on the outside looking in. Although the Fighting Irish are No. 3 in FPI, which is elite territory, they went 10-2 and are No. 13 in SOR. Why so low in SOR? They had just one win vs. a top 25 team in FPI, and they had just four wins total vs. top 50 teams in FPI.

They also lost the two toughest games on their schedule vs. Miami (No. 7 in FPI) and Texas A&M (No. 10 in FPI). A win vs. USC (No. 11 in FPI) helps their raw resume, but they didn't have enough quality wins to overcome their two losses. The committee would've been justified to put Notre Dame in the playoff on the basis of the team being elite. However, their total resume just wasn't good enough.

Now, I have some major issues with the committee's process that led to Notre Dame being left out, but I'll get into that in a little bit.

Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt had a pleasantly surprising season, winning 10 games and performing well enough to be in the hunt for a playoff spot by the end of the year. Unfortunately, the Commodores fell just short of earning a playoff birth.

Vanderbilt actually had a pretty good resume, going 10-2 with the No. 24 SOS and picking up three wins vs. top 25 teams in FPI and six total wins vs. top 50 teams in FPI. The Commodores did lose two games, but they came against Alabama (No. 8 in FPI) and Texas (No. 13 in FPI), who are both quality opponents. This allowed Vandy to finish the season at No. 11 in SOR and No. 14 in FPI.

Vanderbilt was very close to making the playoff, according to my model, finishing the season with the No. 12 resume. What held the Commodores back from making the playoff was losing two games, not having a win vs. a top 15 team in FPI, and ranking outside the top 12 in FPI.

What a season for Vanderbilt, though!

Texas

Texas had an absolute rollercoaster of a season. The Longhorns were the preseason No. 1 team in the country before struggling early in the season. Then the Longhorns found their identity and put together some strong wins to put themselves in playoff contention by the end of the year.

The playoff committee left Texas out of the playoff with little discussion about putting them in. I think their resume is worth taking a close look at. Texas went 9-3 this year despite being No. 8 in SOS, and it had a great collection of quality wins. This season, the Longhorns beat three top fifteen teams in FPI and six total top 50 teams in FPI.

Their wins vs. Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma are excellent. You won't see many non-playoff teams with this many high-level wins.

Unfortunately, Texas did lose three games. The losses to Ohio State (No. 2 in FPI) and Georgia (No. 6 in FPI) aren't detrimental, but the loss to Florida (No. 36 in FPI) definitely is.

Many people claim that Texas missed the playoff because it scheduled a tough non-conference opponent. That isn't true. Texas missed the playoff because it didn't have a record that surpassed expectations based on its FPI, and it had a really bad loss that drags down the quality of its resume

Miami

Once the committee decided that BYU would not be in consideration for the playoff, it had to fill the last at-large bid with either Notre Dame, Miami, Vanderbilt, or Texas. As we all know, the committee went with Miami, a move that shocked everyone.

Miami has a really interesting resume. The Hurricanes went 10-2 this season and beat Notre Dame (No. 3 in FPI) while racking up five total wins vs. teams in the top 59 in FPI. The Notre Dame win is one of the best in the nation, and on top of this, Miami ranks No. 7 in FPI. This is a high-level team.

However, Miami has huge holes in its resume. The Hurricanes lost two games this season against SMU (No. 24 in FPI). and Louisville (No. 29 in FPI). Having two losses to teams outside the top 20 in FPI is really bad. Based on FPI, the average top 25 team would've been expected to lose just one game against Miami's schedule: the matchup with Notre Dame. The fact that Miami lost two games means it underperformed vs. its schedule.

This is why the Hurricanes are No. 14 in SOR and No. 14 in my model's rankings. Their losses are simply too bad to overcome.

I strongly disagree with the committee putting Miami in the playoff based strictly on the merit of its resume. However, I also hate that the committee flipped Notre Dame and Miami, even though it had Notre Dame ranked ahead on Tuesday. If Miami's head-to-head win vs. Notre Dame wasn't enough to put the Hurricanes ahead on Tuesday, why should they be ranked ahead now? Neither team played a game, so their resumes haven't changed at all. The committee is simply inconsistent.

I also can't believe that Miami is being ranked ahead of BYU. BYU's SOR is five spots ahead of Miami's. The Cougars' resume is flat-out way better than Miami's. Congrats to the Hurricanes for getting into the playoff, but I think the committee screwed up big time with this decision.