The NBA Draft Lottery Reform Proposal Might Kill the League

It is official: Adam Silver is a domestic terrorist.

The NBA has reportedly drafted a proposal to reform the draft lottery, which team owners will vote on at the end of May, with the changes to take effect in 2027. Unfortunately, this proposal sucks and would have severe consequences that could legitimately ruin the league.

Here's what the new proposal is, how it affects the lottery, and why it is an abomination.

Right now, the order of the first fourteen picks in the NBA draft is determined by a lottery in which the three worst teams each have a 14% chance at getting the No. 1 pick, while the odds gradually decrease from there.

Under the new proposal, the worst teams would no longer have the best odds of getting the top pick. The NBA is trying to make tanking less appealing by changing the lottery from a system that rewards being one of the very worst teams to one that rewards being bad but not embarrassingly so.

The proposal is called the “3-2-1 lottery.” It would start with the 2027 NBA Draft, expand the lottery from 14 teams to 16 teams, and give every lottery team some chance at the No. 1 pick.

Here's how it would work. Teams 4th-10th from the bottom of the standings, who miss both the playoffs and the play-in tournament, would get three lottery balls and the best odds at landing the No. 1 pick.

The teams with the three worst records would get two lottery balls, as would the No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds in each conference. This group of teams would have the second-best odds at landing the No. 1 pick.

Next, the losers of the 7-8 play-in games would get one lottery ball and the worst odds of landing the No. 1 pick.

That’s why it is called 3-2-1: teams get either three, two, or one lottery ball depending on where they finish in the standings and the play-in tournament.

To be fair, the proposal does include some protections for the very worst teams. The bottom three teams would reportedly not be able to fall below the No. 12 pick, while other lottery teams could fall as low as No. 16. So, this is not the NBA completely removing the safety net for the worst teams in the league.

Unfortunately, this proposal has some major issues.

First off, it is a massive overcorrection to the supposed tanking problem in the modern NBA. I would argue that tanking isn't a major issue in today's league. Do we see instances of teams manipulating their lineup to increase their chance of losing for the sake of getting better lottery odds? Of course, but it isn't as widespread as you might think.

I also believe this proposal overlooks the fact that some teams aren't tanking but are simply not very good. For teams like this, how are they expected to improve their teams in the future?

The salary cap rules are becoming stricter, trades for stars are becoming more expensive, and free agency classes are getting worse, making it harder for bad teams to get better. The draft is the best way for bad teams to improve, but if these draft lottery reforms are implemented, the worst teams in the NBA are likely to stay bad for a long time.

On top of this, I think it is quite obvious that this proposed draft lottery system would lead to more game manipulation and more tanking than ever before. The tanking will simply be a bit different. Instead of teams tanking to have the worst record possible, teams will tank to optimize their place in the standings so they maximize how many lottery balls they get.

Lastly, this system has a glaring problem: it incentivizes teams to be a 9th or 10th seed in the play-in tournament instead of the 7th or 8th seed, since the 9th and 10 seeds get two lottery balls, while the losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games get just one lottery ball. This will directly lead to tanking, which the league is trying to prevent. Neat!

This draft lottery proposal is terrible because it creates more problems than it fixes; it likely generates even more tanking and game manipulation; it makes it harder for bad teams to improve; and it makes life easier for big-market teams. It also benefits the gambling companies that the NBA is in bed with. All of this will make the NBA worse.

Overall, I hate what the NBA is trying to do with the draft lottery, and I believe these proposed reforms show that Commissioner Adam Silver doesn't have the league's best interest at heart. I have lost faith that he should remain the NBA commissioner.