Will Levis vs. Anthony Richardson: Understanding Prospect Development

Every year when the NFL draft rolls around, the draft community dedicates hours upon hours of their time to determine which quarterback prospects have a chance to be a franchise cornerstone at the next level.

This year is no different, as the 2023 class features a plethora of talented gunslingers who are expected to be selected in the first round. For years, the draft community has had its eye on Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, who both broke out as sophomores and made it clear they were NFL-caliber players. However, over the last year or so, two quarterbacks have exploded onto the scene and become first-round caliber prospects: Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson.

These guys are two of the most polarizing prospects in this year’s draft because although they are super talented and have excellent physical tools, they don’t have a track record of consistent production. This makes their evaluation and future projection extremely difficult.

Comparing the two is tough as well because they are extremely different players, and they are at very different points in their development. This leads to an interesting question: how can we better understand a prospect’s development trajectory, and how does this influence our evaluation of Will Levis and Anthony Richardson?

Let’s dive into the numbers and find out.

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Will Levis is a big quarterback who possesses arguably the strongest arm in the class. He also has phenomenal mechanics, and these two characteristics are a big reason why people have fallen in love with him, even to the point of calling him the best quarterback in the class.

Watching his film, it’s clear that he is a competent passer. He is generally pretty accurate, he can go through his projections and make decent decisions, and he can hit pretty much any throw he wants to because he has a cannon attached to his right shoulder.

The problem is he struggled in 2022, and his production was honestly extremely poor. After losing Wan’Dale Robinson to the NFL, his performance fell off a cliff across the board. This past season he had a PFF passing grade of less than 75 on short, medium, and deep throws. He also had a PFF grade of just 72 when the pocket was clean and a grade of 50.8 when he faced pressure.

These are some of the worst numbers any quarterback prospect has had during their final season since 2019. The counting stats weren’t special either, as he threw for 2,406 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.

Does this mean we should disregard Levis as a first-round caliber prospect? Not exactly. It’s important to look at more than just his final season and understand the context behind his struggles in 2022.

In 2021, Levis had a PFF grade of 90.6, and this was his best collegiate season by PFF grading. That year he had a PFF passing grade of 90+ on medium and deep throws as well as a PFF grade of 90+ when the pocket was clean. He still had issues dealing with pressure, and his numbers weren’t elite, but they weren’t at “the worst quarterback prospect since 2019” level like they were in 2022.

The fact that Will Levis was fairly productive in 2021 when he was surrounded by more talent makes it easier to buy into him as a potential franchise quarterback. Still, there are a few problems to consider.

For starters, his career production is not very good. His career passer rating of 145.6 ranks 27th since 2019, and his 19.5 career rushing yards per game ranks 19th since 2019. There’s only one other player with somewhat similar career production, and that’s Justin Herbert. That’s a great company to be associated with, but this isn’t a perfect comparison.

Herbert was even more physically gifted than Levis in college, and he was way better at an earlier age. In 2016, he put up a PFF grade of 77.2 as an 18-year-old freshman at Oregon. When Levis was 18, he was backing up Sean Clifford at Penn State, a role he played for two seasons before transferring to Kentucky. When Levis finally broke out and had a PFF grade of 70+ was in 2021, when he was 22 years old. A breakout age of 22 is pretty old, especially for someone who is likely to be a top-ten pick.

Before we get too deep into Will Levis, let’s talk about Anthony Richardson a bit.

As I mentioned earlier, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis are very different players. While Levis is a strong-armed pocket passer with somewhat limited mobility, Anthony Richardson is a huge quarterback who possesses crazy arm strength and elite rushing ability.

Anthony Richardson became the full-time starter at Florida this past season, and the results were…interesting. He put up some horrific numbers as a passer, including a 53.8% completion percentage, a PFF passing grade of 33.3 on short throws, and a PFF grade of 48.8 under pressure. That is absolutely disgusting.

However, the rushing production was insane. In 2022, he averaged 54.5 rushing yards per game and had an adjusted rushing yards market share of 27.99% (6th since 2019). That kind of rushing productivity with his 6’4, 236 lbs. frame is ridiculous.

Although Richardson’s passing numbers are awful in some places, they’re pretty good in other areas. For example, he is great at avoiding sacks, as shown by his 9.2% pressure-to-sack rate (1st since 2019). He also performs pretty well on play-action plays, reflected by his PFF grade of 91.8 on these plays. Another plus? He is reliable when he isn’t facing pressure, as he has a PFF grade of 89.4 when the pocket is clean.

Still, it’s impossible to ignore that Richardson is one of the worst passing prospects in the last couple of years. His career completion percentage of 54.7% and career passer rating of 133.6 are both bottom three since 2019.

Luckily for him, his rushing ability is out of this world. His 50.7 career rushing yards per game ranks sixth since 2019, and this gives him a decent floor as he goes to the NFL. Quarterbacks with strong rushing ability can succeed in the NFL even if they aren’t high-level passers. Think Daniel Jones or Justin Fields. If Richardson develops as a passer, he could be a star, but even if he doesn’t, he can still be a reliable option at quarterback because he is truly elite as a runner.

This is where things get really interesting with Anthony Richardson. Right now, he is 21 years old and has barely played any football. He played a little bit last season and was ok, sporting a PFF grade of 74.8, but he didn’t play a ton.

This year he played his first season as “the guy,” and he put up a PFF grade of 80.1. I have his breakout age listed as 20.54 years old. That isn’t anything crazy, but it’s still very good, and it shows that he was a pretty solid player at a relatively young age.

This is why comparing Will Levis and Anthony Richardson is so difficult. Not only do they have different play styles, but they’re also in such different places in terms of their development.

Levis will be 23 years old on draft night, and he broke out at an older age. Richardson is a good bit younger at 21 years old, and he broke out a lot sooner. Sure, Levis had a higher peak in college, and I think he has a higher floor as a passer, but his peak season came when he was 22 years old, an age Richardson hasn’t reached yet. If we want to make a fair comparison, let’s look at how good each player was at 21 years old.

When Will Levis was 21, he was sitting behind Sean Clifford, who isn’t an NFL-caliber player. When he did play, he had a PFF grade of just 66.4. Richardson, on the other hand, started in the SEC and put up a special rushing season for a quarterback while sporting a PFF grade of 80.1. Richardson was just so much better than Levis at 21 years old.

There’s no perfect answer in the Will Levis vs. Anthony Richardson debate. Scouting quarterbacks is really freaking hard, and even NFL teams who spend months preparing for the draft haven’t figured this out. Whatever you think is the right choice, we’re all probably wrong.

Here’s my main point: I think it is a huge mistake not to consider breakout age when evaluating prospects. If you like Will Levis over Anthony Richardson because Levis had a higher peak in college, I think you’re missing a key part of the scouting process. In my opinion, Richardson’s rushing ability, combined with his early breakout age and the fact that he was way better as a 21-year-old, gives him a slight edge over Levis.