Breaking Down the CFP Picture After a Crazy Week Ten

Three teams ranked inside the top ten lost this past weekend, shaking up the CFP picture and making this season extremely unpredictable.

On Saturday, No. 1 Tennessee, No. 4 Clemson, and No. 6 Alabama all lost, with the Tigers and Crimson Tide losing as favorites according to the spread.

Three top ten teams losing in the same week doesn’t happen very often and will completely change this week’s edition of the CFP rankings. We won’t see the committee’s rankings until tomorrow night, but down below is how I would rank the top six teams.

Just to be clear, these are not my own personal rankings. I created them using ESPN’s strength of record, FPI, and game control, with strength of record receiving the most weight. It’s an arbitrary system, but it’s a solid system that attempts to create an “objective” set of rankings.

Without further ado, here are my rankings

My CFP Rankings

1. Georgia Bulldogs

The Georgia Bulldogs are the easy choice at No. 1.

With their win vs. Tennessee, they now rank 1st in FPI and strength of record, meaning they are the best team and they have the best resume in the country.

Georgia’s resume is absolutely insane. The Bulldogs are undefeated, with an 8-0 record, and they have double-digit victories vs. Tennessee and Oregon, who are both top-ten teams.

No other team has the same caliber of top wins as Georgia. The Bulldogs’ resume is straight-up way better than everyone else’s.

To be completely honest, Georgia doesn’t have any quality wins outside of Tennessee and Oregon, but those two wins are so good that it doesn’t matter that they lack the complimentary wins that other teams have.

Georgia is special, and they are the right choice at No. 1.

2. Tennessee Volunteers

Yep, Tennessee is still a top-two team, even with their loss to Georgia this weekend.

The reason why the Volunteers only drop by one spot is because their resume is incredible, even as a one-loss team.

Remember, they have wins vs. Alabama (3rd in FPI) and LSU (9th in FPI), who are both top-ten caliber teams. They also have solid complementary wins vs. Florida (32nd in FPI) and Kentucky (40th in FPI).

That is a fantastic resume, and it’s good enough for Tennessee to be ranked this high despite other teams being undefeated.

It’s important to understand that Tennessee is 7-1 despite ranking 2nd in strength of schedule. That’s extremely impressive, not to mention they have two top-ten wins and four top-forty wins while also ranking 5th in FPI.

I understand that the Volunteers have a loss, but that loss came against the best team in the nation, and they have enough big wins to overcome that blemish on their resume.

Tennessee is still an awesome team, and dropping them outside of the top three would be a huge mistake.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes

You could make the case that Ohio State is the best team in the entire country.

The Buckeyes rank near or at the top of the league in every predictive ranking system I’ve seen, and they have been extremely dominant on both sides of the ball.

Their resume is strong as well, as they have wins against Penn State (10th in FPI), Notre Dame (15th in FPI), Wisconsin (22nd in FPI), Iowa (37th in FPI), and Michigan State (39th in FPI).

Ohio State’s resume is way better than people realize, and I think it’s good enough to put the Buckeyes as high as No. 2. However, it’s not quite good enough for them to overtake Tennessee even without a loss.

Nevertheless, Ohio State is a dominant team with a strong resume and could be the No. 1 team at some point if they win out.

4. TCU Horned Frogs

I have a hard time figuring out TCU. The Horned Frogs’ resume is very strong as they rank 4th in strength of record, but they aren’t an elite team, ranking just 14th in FPI and 21st in game control.

Here’s why my system has them this high: they have wins vs. Kansas State (18th in FPI), Oklahoma (22nd in FPI), Oklahoma State (33rd in FPI), Kansas (44th in FPI), and Texas Tech (45th in FPI).

Being 8-0 with those wins is good enough for TCU to be inside the top four in my rankings. I personally prefer Michigan here, but It’s hard to overlook the totality of the Horned Frogs’ resume.

5. Michigan Wolverines

Just outside the top four, we have the Michigan Wolverines.

Michigan has been really good this year, ranking 4th in FPI and 5th in game control. They also have a solid resume, ranking 5th in strength of record.

The Wolverines have one of the best wins in the entire country this year as they beat Penn State 41-17 on their home turf.

They also have a few solid complimentary wins vs. Maryland (29th in FPI), Iowa, and Michigan State. Their combination of a strong top win and incredible team strength gives them a solid case for the top four, but my system prefers TCU’s resume.

The good news: Michigan will get in if they win out, so the Wolverines just have to handle their business on the field.

6. Oregon Ducks

The Oregon Ducks have helped revive the Pac-12 this season, and they are well on their way to making the playoff.

They currently rank 6th in strength of record, 11th in FPI, and 10th in game control. That’s good enough for them to be on the cusp of a top-four spot.

For them to slide into the top four, they need to win out, though, as their resume is pretty weak compared to the other top teams.

Their best win is a 45-30 victory over UCLA (21st in FPI), and their 2nd best win is a 44-41 victory over Washington State (42nd in FPI).

They’ll have plenty of chances to improve their resume as they play Utah and Oregon State to close out the season, but right now, they are on the outside looking in.