Damian Lillard's Case to be the Best Player in the NBA

Now that the 2020-2021 NBA season is over, I want to take a look at some of the top players in the league and determine who the best player is. This will be a multi-part series in which I analyze each player in depth and rank them based on my personal analysis.

Here are the players I will be considering: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, James Harden, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Damian Lillard.

Not all of these players have strong cases to be the best player in the world, but I feel that these guys are truly the cream of the crop.

Before I get into today's breakdown, I want to lay out my philosophy for this series. This is what I'll look for when determining who the king of the NBA is:

1. High Level Production and Impact

Production definitely matters in my opinion because the best players always have great stats and analytics. Just to be clear, whenever I talk about production I mean per possession stats along with other advanced metrics. I believe per game stats are useless since they don't adjust for pace or minutes played, so I like to use per possession stats.

Impact is important to me as well because highly productive players who don't have a positive impact on their team aren't that valuable to me. To measure this, I like to use one number metrics such as box plus/minus, RAPTOR, LEBRON, etc.

These metrics aren't the end all be all, but they do have value in my opinion.

2. Regular Season and Playoff Performance

Regular season performance definitely matters, but playoff performance matters even more. Regular season dominance is great, but I love to see players get better in the playoffs or at least not get worse because the best of the best shine when the lights are the brightest.

When looking at regular season and playoff stats, I'll look at what a player has done over the last three seasons just so we get a good sample size and can weed out the outlier performances. However, if a player like Luka Doncic was a rookie three seasons ago, I'll adjust and look at his performance in his previous two seasons.

3. Scalability/Portability

Scalability or portability is how well a player would fit on different teams with different offensive and defensive schemes. I was introduced to this idea by Thinking Basketball's Ben Taylor and I think it is important to consider a player's situation and how much it helps them be successful. Although I think this is important and will take it into account, I won't put that much stock into it because I value the previous things much more.

4. Championship Equity

In my opinion, the best players in basketball are those who raise the ceiling of their team and improve its chances of winning a championship. This doesn't necessarily mean a player has to have a ring to be in the discussion, but it certainly helps. At the end of the day, I'm looking for a player who has the talent and skill set to lead a team to the promise land. Floor raisers simply aren't that valuable to me.

Whelp, that's my philosophy and how I will be measuring the eleven players mentioned above. Hopefully my thought process makes sense and at least seems like a competent way to analyze these guys. With all that out of the way, let's get into my breakdown of Damian Lillard.

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Damian Lillard's Profile

Here is Lillard's entire profile, including basic information about him, stats from the 2020-2021 season, and stats from the last three regular seasons and playoffs along with my breakdown of the numbers I'll be presenting.

Basic Information

Age: 30

Height: 6'2

Weight: 195 lbs.

Wingspan: 6'8

Position: Point Guard

Team: Portland Trailblazers

2020-2021 Stats

Here is Damian Lillard's analytical profile from the 2020-2021 season with percentile rankings for each metric. Below the graphs you can find his stats for this past season. Just to be transparent, my statistical database includes 522 players who all played at least 250 minutes this season.

Now here is a graph including metrics that attempt to measure specific skills using box score data included in the graph above.

Regular Season Per 100 Possessions Stats:

Points: 39.2

Rebounds: 5.8

Assists: 10.3

Steals: 1.3

Blocks: 0.3

2P%: 51.9% (12.8 2PA)

3P%: 39.1% (14.3 3PA)

FT%: 92.8% (9.8 FTA)

TS%: 62.3%

Regular Season Impact Metrics:

OBPM: 7.4

DBPM: -1.6

BPM: 5.9 (9th)

Back Picks BPM: 4.5

RPM: 4.86 (7th)

RAPTOR: 4.5 (13th)

LEBRON: 3.6 (13th)

CraftedPM: 4.22 (11th)

Playoff Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 42

Rebounds: 5.3

Assists: 12.4

Steals: 1.2

Blocks: 0.8

2P%: 48.2% (11.4 2PA)

3P%: 44.9% (15.9 3PA)

FT%: 94% (10.2 FTA)

TS%: 66%

Playoff Impact Metrics

OBPM: 12.2

DBPM: 0.0

BPM: 12.2

Back Picks BPM: 7.5

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of measurements)

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Multi-Year Regular Season and Playoff Performance

Here are Damian Lillard's stats and impact metrics from the last three regular seasons and playoffs.

2019-2021 Regular Season Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 37.4

Rebounds: 5.9

Assists: 9.9

Steals: 1.4

Blocks: 0.5

2P%: 51.3% (13.7 2PA)

3P%: 38.7% (12.7 3PA)

FT%: 90.9% (9.5 FTA)

TS%: 61.2%

2019-2021 Regular Season Impact Metrics

OBPM: 7.4

DBPM: -0.9

BPM: 6.6

LEBRON: 5.44

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of multi-year measurements)

2019-2021 Playoff Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 35

Rebounds: 5.5

Assists: 8.8

Steals: 1.7

Blocks: 0.5

2P%: 45.9% (12.4 2PA)

3P%: 39.8% (12.8 3PA)

FT%: 88.3% (9.4 FTA)

TS%: 59.6%

2019-2021 Playoff Impact Metrics

OBPM: 6.7

DBPM: -0.3

BPM: 6.4

LEBRON: -0.67

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of multi-year measurements)

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Analytical Breakdown

Now that we're done with the numbers portion of this piece, I'm going to give my thoughts on Damian Lillard's game based on my philosophy which I discussed at the beginning of this piece.

Damian Lillard is one of the most productive offensive players in the NBA. He's an elite scorer and a world class shooter who also provides high level passing. Players who can create shots for both themselves and their teammates are extremely valuable and Lillard is one of the best at this.

Although Lillard is well known as an elite high volume three point shooter, I think he's a pretty good finisher too. This season, he shot 63.1% from 0-3 feet on pretty good volume. For a 6'2 point guard, he's a very good finisher in my opinion.

Here's the biggest issue with Lillard: he is an awful defender. He doesn't get many steals or blocks and his defensive impact is poor. Over the last three seasons, he has a DBPM of -0.9 and a D-LEBRON of -1.02. This means he has consistently had a negative impact on the Portland Trailblazer's defense.

Despite his poor defense, Lillard is still a very impactful player. Most one number impact metrics see him as a borderline top ten player, which can be attributed to his insane offensive production.

His impact takes a nosedive in the playoffs though. From 2019-2021, he had a regular season LEBRON of 5.44. From 2018-2021, he had a playoff LEBRON of -0.67. That is a massive decrease and it happened because of Lillard's defense. From 2019-2021, his regular season D-LEBRON was -1.02. From 2018-2021, his playoff D-LEBRON was -3.01.

Lillard has never been a positive defender, but his defensive impact gets noticeably worse in the playoffs. This is all a huge issue when discussing his championship equity.

Small guards often struggle in the playoffs due to the fact that they usually have defensive flaws. Lillard is no different, but his defense is such a big issue in the playoffs that his offensive output doesn't have the effect that it should.

Can Damian Lillard be the best player on a championship winning team? Maybe, but you'd have to surround him with high level defenders to do so. I honestly don't think it would be easy to build a legitimate championship contender with Lillard as your best player.

Damian Lillard is a very productive regular season and playoff performer who can score, shoot, and pass at an elite level. Over the last three seasons, he has been an All-NBA caliber player, but he gets slightly worse on offense in the playoffs and his defense causes many issues in the postseason.

I love his skill set and think he is a top ten offensive player in the league, but his defensive woes and worsening performance in the playoffs lead me to believe that he isn't quite good enough to be in the conversation for the best player in the NBA.