How Good Was LaMelo Ball as a Rookie?

It’s been about a year since the 2020 NBA Draft which featured a really deep class with a plethora of talented players all across the board. At the time, the consensus top prospects were considered to be weaker players due to some of the warts in their game, but one draftee shocked us all and played at an extremely high level during their rookie season: LaMelo Ball.

Here’s why LaMelo Ball played so well and what he can do moving forward to build upon his excellent rookie season.

On November 18th, 2020, the Charlotte Hornets selected LaMelo Ball with the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. Prior to the draft, there was a lot of disagreement about who the best prospect in the draft really was. A lot of people on draft twitter had LaMelo slotted in at number one on their draft boards while others, including myself, thought Killian Hayes was the best. Obviously it’s a little early to make any proclamations, but I think I’m gonna be wrong about the Hayes vs. Ball debate.

Here is LaMelo Ball’s analytical profile from the 2020-2021 season with percentile rankings for each metric. Below the graphs you can find his stats for this past season. Just to be transparent, my statistical database includes 522 players who all played at least 250 minutes this season.

Now here is a graph including metrics that attempt to measure specific skills using box score data included in the graph above.

In 51 games this season, LaMelo averaged 26.7 points, 10 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per 100 possessions on 53.9% true shooting. He also had a BPM of 1.9. His efficiency was underwhelming, ranking in the 32nd percentile, but despite this, he was still a very good player who provided positive value. It’s really rare for a player to be good in their first season, but LaMelo did just that.

There’s a couple reasons why he was so good this season, starting with his experience playing professional basketball. From 2017-2020, LaMelo played 21 total games overseas for Vytautas Prienu (Lithuania LKL) and the Illawarra Hawks (NBL). Although he didn’t play a ton of international games, playing in these two leagues allowed him to compete against grown men who were much older and more experienced than him.

Playing against professionals at the young age of seventeen forced Ball to mature quickly and adjust his game accordingly. In my opinion, this helped him grow as a player and had a positive impact on his development curve.

Another reason for his incredible play was his passing ability. This was one of his best traits coming into last year’s draft as he sported a 36.1% assist rate in the NBL. The advanced court vision, anticipation, and feel for the game that Ball displayed overseas translated seamlessly to the NBA, as he had an assist rate of 33.9% (96th percentile) and a turnover rate of just 16.3% (96th percentile).

His production as a passer led to him ranking in the 96th percentile in my passing metric, which incorporates a few stats like assist rate, usage rate, and turnover rate. His unreal playmaking is the biggest reason why he was ranked in the 95th percentile in my creation metric. LaMelo's ability to create open shots for his teammates is unbelievable for someone who hasn’t even turned twenty yet.

Here’s a play that exemplifies everything that makes him an elite passer.

LaMelo takes a handoff from Cody Zeller as Zeller roles toward the basket. The Jazz are running drop coverage, which means their center, Rudy Gobert, is playing deep to force Ball to take a mid range jumper. Ball attacks the basket and goes up for a layup, but when Gobert tries to contest his shot, he quickly dumps the ball off to Zeller who finishes the play with an easy layup.

Ball's size and ability to make quick decisions made this play happen. If he were 6'4 rather than 6'8, I don't know if he would've been able to fit the ball past Gobert. His height and length make him even more dangerous as a passer, because he can see windows that shorter guards simply can't see due to their physical limitations.

The final reason for his success this year was his defense. Now he wasn't a good defender this season, but I'm pretty surprised that he was just slightly below average rather than completely awful.

My defensive metric says that LaMelo was a pretty good defender this season, but I disagree. My defensive metric is flawed because it involves basketball reference's DBPM which struggles to properly measure defense. I think my metric has some value, but it's nowhere near perfect.

Here's why I think LaMelo was slightly below average as a defender. Most one number impact metrics agree that he was a slight negative on that end of the floor.

DLEBRON: -0.46

DRAPTOR: -0.87

DRPM: -2.26

CraftedDPM: -0.3

Considering LEBRON does a much better job of measuring defensive impact than DBPM, I'm comfortable saying LaMelo was probably a below average defender even though he had really good defensive production.

Here's what LaMelo needs to work on to improve moving forward. First, he needs to become a better pull up three point shooter. This season he shot 35.2% from three on around nine attempts per 100, which is great for his standards, but he still has a ways to go.

72.8% of his threes were assisted and he shot just 32.1% on pull ups from downtown. He was great off the catch, shooting 39.3%, but he needs to work on his ability to hit shots off the dribble if he ever wants to be considered a good three point shooter. I'm optimistic that he'll get there eventually because he isn't afraid to shoot and he showcases great touch on floaters while also being a solid free throw shooter

Another issue he needs to clean up is his defense. The fact that he wasn't terrible on defense this season is a great sign for his potential on that end, but he needs to get stronger and learn how to properly utilize his length. Once he does that, he should be at least a slightly above average defender.

LaMelo Ball is an extremely talented player who's had an interesting career arc up to this point. He was awesome as a rookie this season and showed a lot of improvement from his time in the NBL. Right now, he's playing primarily off instincts and is nowhere near his ceiling on offense or defense. That makes me incredibly excited because he is already a high level creator and an elite passer. If he improves as a defender and pull up three point shooter, he could easily be a star in the NBA.