2021 NBA Draft: Jaden Springer Analytical Profile

The 2021 NBA Draft is almost here so to prepare for this amazing event, I will be releasing analytical profiles for the eighty two prospects in my database. In these profiles, I will break down the numbers behind this year's prospects and hopefully, we can learn something through this process.

Let's start with Tennesse guard, Jaden Springer.

Springer is a 6-foot-4 204-pound guard with a 6-foot-6 wingspan and is one of the youngest prospects in the draft. He was the 13th overall recruit coming out of high school in 2020 according to RSCI and he had a big freshman year for Tennessee.

Here is his analytical profile with percentile rankings for each metric.

Draft Age: 18.73 (95th)

Size: 6'4/204/6'6 (43rd)

Offensive Load: 25.9 MPG | 26% USG% (33rd)

Scoring Rate: 19.3 (57th)

Scoring Efficiency: 57% (54th)

Three Point Shooting: 2.8 3PA Per 40 | 43.5% 3PT% | 81% FT% (35th)

Free Throw Rate: .441 (82nd)

Offensive Rebound Rate: 4.6% (55th)

Defensive Rebound Rate: 10.9% (18th)

Total Rebound Rate: 7.8% (26th)

Assist Rate: 24.1% (79th)

Turnover Rate: 17.9% (21st)

Steal Rate: 2.7% (82nd)

Block Rate: 2% (56th)

Stock (Steals+Blocks) Rate: 4.7% (65th)

Offensive Win Shares: 1.6 (37th)

Defensive Win Shares: 1.3 (52nd)

Win Shares: 2.9 (39th)

Statistical Strengths: Draft Age, Free Throw Rate, Assist Rate, Steal Rate, Stock Rate

Statistical Weaknesses: Offensive Load, Three-Point Shooting, Turnover Rate

Springer is a very interesting prospect. One of his biggest issues is the fact that he didn't play a ton as a freshman. He appeared in twenty-five games last season, but he only had fifteen starts. He also played just 25.9 minutes per contest. I don't necessarily think this makes him a worse prospect, but I could see teams question his ability since he came off the bench a lot last year.

Nevertheless, I think he has an intriguing skill set. For starters, he is a solid scorer, ranking above average in both scoring rate and scoring efficiency. This is partially because he was an effective three-point shooter in college, but I think it has more to do with his ability to get to the rim.

His free throw rate is very good and I think he will be able to get to the rim in the NBA due to his functional strength and his ability to finish through contact.

I do have questions about his potential as a playmaker though. His turnover rate is way too high considering his assist rate is just 24.1%. I think he has the potential to be a solid playmaker, but he needs to limit the turnovers at the next level.

Springer's biggest strength is his defense. His 2.7% steal rate passes the 2.5% threshold and that, along with his young age and positive wingspan, is great for his projection as a perimeter defender.

Although I like Springer's well-rounded game, I have a big question about his offensive skill set. How can he be effective if his three-point shot doesn't translate? Although he shot over forty percent this past year, he did it on low volume and I wonder if he can be a good long-distance shooter on higher volume in the NBA.

If his shot doesn't translate, he becomes less effective as an off-ball guard because he won't force defenders to close out on him. This will eliminate his ability to attack the basket on closeouts and I don't have enough confidence in his creation package to make him a lead ball handler. This is a legitimate issue that teams must consider before they decide to draft Springer.

Like I said earlier, Jaden Springer is an extremely interesting prospect with a lot of value as a two-way combo guard. Despite some flaws in his offensive arsenal, I think his combination of youth, perimeter defense, playmaking potential, and finishing ability gives him a high enough floor to bet on relatively early in the first round.