Tre Mann's Shot Creation Makes him an Intruiging Prospect

The 2021 NBA Draft features a strong guard class with many players who have the talent to contribute on high-level teams. One of those players is Florida combo guard Tre Mann. Mann has a very intriguing skill set, and I believe he can become one of the better players in this class. Let’s go through the numbers and see what makes him such an exciting player and how he can contribute at the next level.

Tre Mann played his high school ball at The Village Charter Schools, where he played for four years. He finished his high school career as a four-star recruit and the 34th ranked player in the class of 2019. On August 28th, 2018, he committed to play for the Florida Gators.

His freshman season in 2019 was a bit underwhelming as he started in just 4 of the 29 games he played and averaged a measly 5.3 points per game. He also had a true shooting percentage of 44.6% and a box plus-minus of -0.8. Simply put, he was not very good as a freshman, and you could even say he was a slight negative on the court.

This was not the case this past season.

Mann had a resurgence in 2020, averaging 16 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game on 57.9% true shooting. He was a drastically different player this season, and he might’ve done enough to be a top twenty pick.

Tre Mann’s calling card in the NBA will be his ability to create his own shot. He is a fantastic scorer, and his production reflects this. During his final season at Florida, he averaged 19.8 points per forty minutes and did it on excellent shooting splits (49.4% 2PT/40.2% 3PT/83.1% FT). He also carried a heavy offensive load (7th among guards) and attempted 19.5 field goals and free throws combined per forty minutes. These stats, among others, are why he ranks seventh among guards in my scoring metric.

The main reason why Mann is a good scorer is because he has an elite handle. He does a great job creating space because he is extremely flexible and can stop on a dime whenever he wants. He loves the snatch-back and will destroy teams by making shots off-the-dribble from three point range.

I am confident that his perimeter scoring ability will translate to the NBA, making him extremely valuable in the playoffs. In the postseason, scoring becomes a lot harder as defenses get tighter, and guys who can create shots for themselves usually shine in this environment.

I do have a few concerns about his overall game, though. His passing and defense leave a lot to be desired and keep him from being a star-level primary initiator, in my opinion. Let’s start with his passing.

He ranks 13th among guards in my passing metric, primarily due to his 17% turnover rate. Here are some other metrics that don’t exactly make him look like an elite passer:

0.85 AST%/USG% (15th among guards)

1.23 AST/TO Per 40 Minutes (16th among guards)

Despite all of this, I think he has the potential to be a quality playmaker in the NBA. He doesn’t have great anticipation, and too often, he sees open windows way too late. However, he is willing to attempt difficult passes, and he consistently executes simple reads. Even if his passing doesn’t improve, I think he’ll be a good creator for both himself and his teammates at the next level. He ranks 9th among guards in my creation metric which measures a player’s ability to score and pass effectively.

Although I’m optimistic about his passing ability, his defense is a much bigger issue in my opinion. Tre Mann is 6'5 which is good for a shooting guard, but his skinny 190 lbs. frame is a big issue for him on the defensive end of the floor. He struggles to move his feet and opponents can easily overpower him on drives. He needs to get stronger to survive on defense in the NBA.

Here's where I struggle with Tre Mann's evaluation. The shot creation is real and I have no doubt that his scoring will translate to the NBA. That skill alone gives him some value, but he needs the ball in his hands to impact the game. When he doesn't have the ball, he isn't giving you much value because he isn't a good defender and he lacks the skill set to be impactful as an off-ball secondary ball handler.

Since he isn't a great passer, I don't think he can be a primary initiator, at least not early in his career. This makes me wonder how high his ceiling is. He could be a phenomenal microwave scorer coming off the bench, but teams need to ask themselves how valuable that role is and how high they're willing to draft a sixth man.

It'll be interesting to see how he develops as a passer because I believe that is his swing skill. If he improves his processing speed, he could be a very good starter even if he never becomes a quality defender.

I am a big fan of Tre Mann and I think he has the potential to be a really good scorer in the NBA. His issues as a defender and a passer probably limit his upside, but his shooting profile and his ability to create space for himself gives him a solid floor as a playoff scorer. Despite the problems I have with his game, I’m willing to bet on him as a very good sixth man with the potential to be a solid starter if he develops other aspects of his game.