James Harden's Case to be the Best Player in the NBA

Today I'm continuing my new series in which I'll be analyzing the top players in the NBA to determine who is actually the best player in the league. I broke down Anthony Davis' profile in my last article, so I'm moving on to James Harden today.

Using my philosophy, which I outlined in my Damian Lillard piece (check that out here), I'm going to analyze Harden's analytical profile to see whether or not he is worthy of being in the "best player in the league" conversation.

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James Harden's Profile

Here is Harden's entire profile, including basic information about him, stats from the 2020-2021 season, and stats from the last three regular seasons and playoffs, along with my breakdown of the numbers I'll be presenting.

Basic Information

Age: 31

Height: 6'5

Weight: 220 lbs.

Wingspan: 6'11

Position: Shooting Guard

Team: Brooklyn Nets

2020-2021 Stats

Here is James Harden's analytical profile from the 2020-2021 season with percentile rankings for each metric. Below the graphs, you can find his stats for this past season. To be transparent, my statistical database includes 522 players who all played at least 250 minutes this season.

Here is a graph including metrics that attempt to measure specific skills using box score data included in the graph above.

Regular Season Per 100 Possessions Stats:

Points: 32.4

Rebounds: 10.4

Assists: 14.2

Steals: 1.6

Blocks: 1

2P%: 55.3% (12 2PA)

3P%: 36.2% (10 3PA)

FT%: 86.1% (9.6 FTA)

TS%: 61.8%

Regular Season Impact Metrics:

OBPM: 6.2

DBPM: 0.6

BPM: 6.8 (7th)

Back Picks BPM: 6.7

RPM: 4.81 (8th)

RAPTOR: 4.4 (14th)

LEBRON: 3.72 (12th)

CraftedPM: 4.81 (10th)

Playoff Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 28.2

Rebounds: 8.8

Assists: 11.9

Steals: 2.3

Blocks: 0.9

2P%: 64.3% (6.5 2PA)

3P%: 36.4% (10.2 3PA)

FT%: 90.3% (9.6 FTA)

TS%: 67.3%

Playoff Impact Metrics

OBPM: 7.1

DBPM: 2.1

BPM: 9.2

Back Picks BPM: 7.5

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of measurements)

Multi-Year Regular Season and Playoff Performance

Here are James Harden's stats and impact metrics from the last three regular seasons and playoffs.

2019-2021 Regular Season Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 42.8

Rebounds: 9

Assists: 10.8

Steals: 2.3

Blocks: 1

2P%: 54.3% (13.4 2PA)

3P%: 36.2% (15.1 3PA)

FT%: 87% (13.6 FTA)

TS%: 62%

2019-2021 Regular Season Impact Metrics

OBPM: 8.2

DBPM: 1.4

BPM: 9.5

LEBRON: 7.32

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of multi-year measurements)

2019-2021 Playoff Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 36.6

Rebounds: 8.3

Assists: 10

Steals: 2.4

Blocks: 1.1

2P%: 56.4% (11.6 2PA)

3P%: 34.7% (13.2 3PA)

FT%: 85.5% (11.4 FTA)

TS%: 61.3%

2019-2021 Playoff Impact Metrics

OBPM: 7

DBPM: 1.9

BPM: 8.9

LEBRON: 5.47

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of multi-year measurements)

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Analytical Breakdown

Now that we're done with the numbers portion of this piece, I will give my thoughts on James Harden's game based on my philosophy which I discussed at the beginning of the Damian Lillard piece.

James Harden is an exceptional offensive talent who combines elite isolation scoring with high-level passing. This season, he ranked in the 99th percentile in my scoring metric and the 100th percentile in my passing metric.

His scoring is such a significant threat that it opens up opportunities for his teammates. This is why he ranked in the 99th percentile in my creation metric, which measures a player's ability to create shots for their teammates due to their scoring gravity.

Harden is an interesting player to break down because his situation drastically changed this season. Before being traded to the Brooklyn Nets, he consistently had a usage rate over 35% each season. He was the primary initiator for the Houston Rockets, and their entire offense ran through him.

That changed in Brooklyn because he is playing alongside Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, who are both stars in their own right. Now, Harden is more of a secondary ball-handler with an elite primary initiator's talent and track record. This new role has its positives and negatives, but I think It helps Harden's case.

One of the most significant issues with Harden's game over the last few seasons was how ball-dominant he was. Like I mentioned earlier, Houston ran their entire offense through him, which led to him having a 40.5% usage rate during the 2018-2019 season. That kind of load is insane and not conducive to championship-level basketball.

From 2019-2020, Harden had an average usage rate of 34.7% in the playoffs. Only one player in NBA history has ever won a championship with a usage rate over 34%. That was Michael Jordan in 1992-1993. As you can see, it is tough to win a title when you rely so heavily on one player to run your offense.

But now Harden is in a different situation, and we have to consider this new context when analyzing him. Once you do that, you realize that Harden is freaking awesome as a secondary option.

This postseason, Harden's usage rate went from 32.4% to 28.4%, a pretty big dip, but his BPM rose from 8.1 to 9.4. His production got worse due to his lightened offensive load, but he was unbelievably efficient and impactful. In nine playoff games, Harden averaged just 28 points per 100, but he did it on 67% true shooting. His ability to generate free throws and be efficient from three on high volume made him incredibly dangerous on offense.

What does this mean exactly? It shows that Harden can be effective in a multitude of situations. If you need him to carry a historic offensive load, he can. If you want him to play second fiddle alongside multiple stars, he can. His offensive skill set makes him extremely portable, and that has some value, in my opinion.

Here's where problems start to arise. Although Harden has been a historically good regular season performer over the last three seasons, his production dips in the playoffs.

From 2019-2020, Harden had a BPM of 9.5 and a LEBRON of 7.32 in the regular season. In the playoffs, he had a BPM of 8.9 and a LEBRON of 5.47. This makes sense because he is a less productive and efficient scorer in the postseason. I will say, his playoff performance was impressive this season, but I need to see more from him as a second option before I'm comfortable with him in the playoffs.

I bet you're probably asking yourself, what about 2018? Did Harden not prove that he can lead a team deep in the playoffs when the Rockets almost beat the Warriors? He absolutely did, but that was four years ago, and Harden fell short in the playoffs over the next two seasons without Chris Paul.

Suppose he continues to play well in the postseason with a smaller offensive role. In that case, he can rise in my rankings because his championship equity will improve if he proves to me that he can consistently be a high-level second option on a championship contender.

James Harden is a ridiculously talented offensive player who has been very good in multiple contexts over the last three years. The fact that his production gets worse in the playoffs worries me, but he has an excellent skill set for a high-level second option on a championship-caliber team.

I am high on Harden because he is an elite creator, an excellent floor spacer, and an underrated defender, considering how big his offensive load has been over the years. He has so many elite skills, which allows him to carry offenses and provide great impact as a secondary initiator on extremely talented teams.

If he's healthy in the playoffs next year and continues to play well, I'll have to reconsider his ranking within the NBA because he is an elite talent who needs to prove that he has elite championship equity.