Joel Embiid's Case to be the Best Player in the NBA

Today I'm continuing my new series in which I'll be analyzing the top players in the NBA to determine who is actually the best player in the league. I broke down James Harden's profile in my last article, so I'm moving on to Joel Embiid today.

Using my philosophy, which I outlined in my Damian Lillard piece (check that out here), I'm going to analyze Embiid's analytical profile to see whether or not he is worthy of being in the "best player in the league" conversation.

Joel Embiid's Profile

Here is Embiid's entire profile, including basic information about him, stats from the 2020-2021 season, and stats from the last three regular seasons and playoffs, along with my breakdown of the numbers I'll be presenting.

Basic Information

Age: 27

Height: 7'0

Weight: 240 lbs.

Wingspan: 7'5

Position: Center

Team: Philadelphia 76ers

2020-2021 Stats

Here is Joel Embiid's analytical profile from the 2020-2021 season, with percentile rankings for each metric. Below the graphs, you can find his stats for this past season. To be transparent, my statistical database includes 522 players who all played at least 250 minutes this season.

Here is a graph including metrics that attempt to measure specific skills using box score data included in the graph above.

Regular Season Per 100 Possessions Stats:

Points: 44.1

Rebounds: 16.4

Assists: 4.4

Steals: 1.5

Blocks: 2.1

2P%: 54.1% (22.7 2PA)

3P%: 37.7% (4.7 3PA)

FT%: 85.9% (16.7 FTA)

TS%: 63.6%

Regular Season Impact Metrics:

OBPM: 6.2

DBPM: 1

BPM: 7.2 (6th)

Back Picks BPM: 4.7

RPM: 5.25 (5th)

RAPTOR: 8.7 (2nd)

LEBRON: 5.48 (4th)

CraftedPM: 6.12 (3rd)

Playoff Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 41.5

Rebounds: 15.6

Assists: 5

Steals: 1.5

Blocks: 2.1

2P%: 54.5% (20.9 2PA)

3P%: 39% (5.5 3PA)

FT%: 83.5% (14.6 FTA)

TS%: 63.1%

Playoff Impact Metrics

OBPM: 4.7

DBPM: 2.8

BPM: 7.5

Back Picks BPM: 4.3

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of measurements)

Multi-Year Regular Season and Playoff Performance

Here are Joel Embiid's stats and impact metrics from the last three regular seasons and playoffs.

2019-2021 Regular Season Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 40

Rebounds: 18.3

Assists: 4.8

Steals: 1.3

Blocks: 2.3

2P%: 53.2% (21.1 2PA)

3P%: 32.9% (5.4 3PA)

FT%: 82.4% (14.9 FTA)

TS%: 60.6%

2019-2021 Regular Season Impact Metrics

OBPM: 4.6

DBPM: 1

BPM: 5.5

LEBRON: 5.39

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of multi-year measurements)

2019-2021 Playoff Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 37.8

Rebounds: 16.3

Assists: 4.6

Steals: 1.5

Blocks: 2.7

2P%: 51.2% (19.4 2PA)

3P%: 33.3% (5.6 3PA)

FT%: 82.6% (15 FTA)

TS%: 59.9%

2019-2021 Playoff Impact Metrics

OBPM: 3.9

DBPM: 2.4

BPM: 6.3

LEBRON: 6.13

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of multi-year measurements)

Analytical Breakdown

Now that we're done with the numbers portion of this piece, I will give my thoughts on Joel Embiid's game based on my philosophy which I discussed at the beginning of the Damian Lillard piece.

Joel Embiid is a dominant two-way center who had an excellent season this year, finishing second in MVP voting behind Nikola Jokic. He was incredible on both ends of the floor, averaging 44.1 points per 100 while also being incredibly impactful on defense (D-LEBRON of 1.5). His defensive prowess was well known before this season, but he hadn't been this dominant of an offensive player.

From 2019-2020, he averaged 38.2 points per 100 on 59.2% true shooting. These are good scoring numbers, but not elite. After only playing 51 games in 2020, he became an elite scorer and an above-average passer in 2021. His productivity as a scorer and passer is why he ranked in the 95th percentile in my creation metric this past season.

A big reason for his improved offensive production was his three-point shooting. This year, he shot 37.7% from downtown on 3.5 attempts per 36 minutes. He had never shot 35% from three in his entire five-year career.

Embiid's two-way impact this year led to him ranking in the top ten of virtually every single one number impact metric. This makes sense considering everyone saw him as a deserving MVP candidate.

He played just as well in the playoffs, averaging very similar numbers and having similar impact. As a Hawks fan myself, I can attest to his playoff performance. He was a dominant force who couldn't be stopped.

Embiid has two significant issues, though. He is injury-prone, and he only has one season of elite play over the last three years.

Injuries have hindered his career at times, and that was no different this season. He missed a big chunk of games in the regular season due to a knee bruise, and right before the playoffs, he suffered a torn meniscus which put his availability into question. His meniscus injury did not affect him, but this was just another example of his body failing him at the worst time.

I worry that his lower body injuries may affect his longevity and short-term impact in the playoffs. If he can't make it through the regular season without his body breaking down, how can we expect him to perform at this level in the playoffs moving forward? I'm not saying he can't do it, but I have serious concerns about his health.

Like I mentioned earlier, Embiid is coming off his first season in which he played at an MVP level. This makes me a bit uncomfortable betting on him moving forward due to his health and the outlier three-point shooting that led to his breakout. Nevertheless, I don't think it's ridiculous to expect him to play like this again because he has proven to be an elite rim protector, an excellent all-around scorer, and an above-average playmaker.

Joel Embiid is a fantastic big man who has turned into a wonderful creator and a high-level defender. His two-way impact, along with his improved three-point shooting, makes him extremely portable as well as a fantastic playoff performer. If he can stay healthy and continues to shoot well from three, He could become a top-five player in the NBA.