Nikola Jokic's Case to be the Best Player in the NBA

Today I'm continuing my new series in which I'll be analyzing the top players in the NBA to determine who is the best player in the league. In my last article, I broke down Giannis Antetokounmpo's profile, so I'm moving on to Nikola Jokic today.

Using my philosophy, which I outlined in my Damian Lillard piece (check that out here), I will analyze Nikola Jokic's profile to see whether or not he is worthy of being in the "best player in the league" conversation.

Nikola Jokic's Profile

Here is Jokic's entire profile, including basic information about him, stats from the 2020-2021 season, and stats from the last three regular seasons and playoffs, along with my breakdown of the numbers I'll be presenting.

Basic Information

Age: 26

Height: 6'11

Weight: 284 lbs.

Wingspan: 7'3

Position: Center

Team: Denver Nuggets

2020-2021 Stats

Here is Nikola Jokic's analytical profile from the 2020-2021 season, with percentile rankings for each metric. Below the graphs, you can find his stats for this past season. To be transparent, my statistical database includes 522 players who all played at least 250 minutes this season.

Here is a graph including metrics that attempt to measure specific skills using box score data included in the graph above.

Regular Season Per 100 Possessions Stats:

Points: 37.7

Rebounds: 15.5

Assists: 11.9

Steals: 1.9

Blocks: 1

2P%: 60.6% (21 2PA)

3P%: 38.8% (4.7 3PA)

FT%: 86.8% (7.8 FTA)

TS%: 64.7%

Regular Season Impact Metrics:

OBPM: 9.2

DBPM: 2.5

BPM: 11.7 (2nd)

Back Picks BPM: 8.6

RPM: 4.78 (9th)

RAPTOR: 9.6 (1st)

LEBRON: 6.33 (1st)

CraftedPM: 6.89 (1st)

Playoff Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 43.1

Rebounds: 16.7

Assists: 7.2

Steals: 0.9

Blocks: 1.3

2P%: 54.9% (25.3 2PA)

3P%: 37.7% (7.7 3PA)

FT%: 83.6% (7.9 FTA)

TS%: 59.1%

Playoff Impact Metrics

OBPM: 8.8

DBPM: .02

BPM: 9

Back Picks BPM: 6.7

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of measurements)

Multi-Year Regular Season and Playoff Performance

Here are Nikola Jokic's stats and impact metrics from the last three regular seasons and playoffs.

2019-2021 Regular Season Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 33.4

Rebounds: 15.9

Assists: 11.4

Steals: 1.9

Blocks: 1

2P%: 59% (18.9 2PA)

3P%: 33.5% (5.1 3PA)

FT%: 83.8% (7 FTA)

TS%: 61.5%

2019-2021 Regular Season Impact Metrics

OBPM: 7

DBPM: 2.5

BPM: 9.4

LEBRON: 5.41

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of multi-year measurements)

2019-2021 Playoff Per 100 Possessions Stats

Points: 35.6

Rebounds: 15.5

Assists: 8.9

Steals: 1.3

Blocks: 1.2

2P%: 54.7% (20 2PA)

3P%: 40.6% (6.6 3PA)

FT%: 84% (6.8 FTA)

TS%: 60.2%

2019-2021 Playoff Impact Metrics

OBPM: 7.4

DBPM: 1.8

BPM: 9.2

LEBRON: 3.77

(Some metrics not included due to the lack of multi-year measurements)

Analytical Breakdown

Now that we're done with the numbers portion of this piece, I will give my thoughts on Nikola Jokic's game based on my philosophy which I discussed at the beginning of the Damian Lillard piece.

Nikola Jokic is the last big man I'll be breaking down, and I think he is the best center and one of the best offensive players in the NBA.

This season, he became an elite scorer which made his value as an offensive engine skyrocket. He ranked in the 99th percentile in my scoring metric, primarily due to his improvement as a three-point shooter.

From 2019-2020, Jokic shot just 31% from three, but he shot 38.8% from three on 4.7 attempts per 100 possessions this season. He isn't an elite floor spacer due to the low volume of threes he's attempting, but it's great to see him be an effective three-point shooter over a 72 game sample size.

His biggest strength as an offensive player is his passing ability, which is historically good for a big man. This season, he ranked in the 99th percentile in my passing metric, which shows that he is truly one of the best passers in the NBA regardless of his position.

Jokic is an elite passer who consistently makes difficult passes into extremely tight windows. His feel for the game is incredible and extremely rare for a guy his size. Jokic is 6'11 with a 7'3 wingspan. His size and length allow him to see over defenses and make passes that other smaller players can't execute due to their size.

Now that Jokic has become an elite scorer, he's also an elite all-around playmaker. This is why he ranked in the 99th percentile in my creation metric this season. His ability to score from anywhere on the floor and make complex reads as a passer while being 6'11 makes him an extremely valuable offensive player.

One of the more underrated parts of his game is his defense. Over the last three seasons, he has never had a D-EPM lower than 1, which means he has consistently been among the top 20% of all players in terms of defensive impact.

He is an elite all-around offensive force and a solid defender, which makes him extremely valuable in the playoffs. Over the last three years, he's had a playoff BPM of 9.2, which is unbelievable. This season his playoff dominance peaked as he averaged 43.1 points and 7.2 assists per 100 possessions on 59.1% true shooting.

It is tough for a big man to be the best player on a championship-winning team in the modern NBA. To do so, they have to be a phenomenal offensive player who can be the primary initiator. They also can't be a horrendous defender, or they'll get played off the floor in the postseason.

Jokic is both of these things, and his ability to shoot, pass, score, and defend at a high level makes him extremely portable and allows him to transition smoothly to the playoffs.

Out of all the bigs in the NBA, I'm most confident in Jokic's ability to lead a team to a championship. He hasn't done it yet, but I firmly believe that he can. Even if you disagree with that, you must admit that he would be incredible playing next to a star or two on a really good team.

Nikola Jokic is a superstar who has taken off and become a dominant offensive player within the last few years. His consistent playoff performance and his portability make him one of the best players in the league and give him a very interesting case for the best player in the NBA.